Oil prices fell by more than 3%, gold prices fell for the second consecutive week. OPEC+ held a meeting in advance to increase production beyond expectations

Basic news

On Monday (May 5, Beijing time), gold prices traded around 3240.57, and gold prices fell for the second consecutive week last week, as expected easing trade tensions and a strong employment report put the gold price under pressure; U.S. crude oil fell more than 3%, and trading around $56.26 per barrel. OPEC+ advanced the originally planned meeting on Monday to Saturday, and decided to increase crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, far exceeding the previous planned monthly increase of 137,000 barrels per day.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher last Friday, with weekly gains for the second consecutive week, helped by strong economic data and trade tensions that could ease.

The United States added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2%. Data has helped alleviate concerns about a slowdown. Previously, a report from the U.S. Department of xm-links.commerce showed that due to the sharp increase in imports caused by tariffs, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrank for the first time in three years. "The stock market is excited by the job report, but I must point out that job growth did slow down in April, and I haven't seen much xm-links.comment on this. I'm a little surprised because the non-farm jobs survey was conducted a week after the tariff announcement, and I originally expected the slowdown to be even greater. So I think the market thinks it's a positive sign." Trump's suspension of some tariffs has helped the U.S. stock index recover some of the recent losses. The Nasdaq Index is currently on April 2The level before the "Liberation Day" was when the president announced large-scale global tariffs.

The S&P 500 rose for the ninth consecutive trading day, tying the longest round of gains since 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose for nine consecutive trading days, the first time since December 2023. Last week, the S&P 500 rose 2.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3%, and the Nasdaq rose 3.43%.

Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.39% to 41,317.43 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.47% to 5,686.68 points; and the Nasdaq rose 1.51% to 17,977.73 points. "I do think today's situation shows that the economy is much stronger and more resilient than one might think in the face of all these tariffs and concerns about them," said Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital in New York. "The iPhone maker Apple fell nearly 4% as the xm-links.company cut its share buyback program by $10 billion, and CEO Cook told analysts that the tariffs could lead to a cost increase of about $900 million this quarter.

Other so-called Big Seven stocks, such as MetaPlatform, rose 4.3%, and Nvidia rose 2.6%. Amazon fell 0.1%. Chevron rose 1.6% and ExxonMobil rose 0.4% after both energy giants reported quarterly results.

Gold market

Gold prices fell slightly last Friday and fell for the second consecutive weekly week as expected easing trade tensions and a strong employment report put gold prices under pressure.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3228.50 per ounce. Gold prices fell 2.6% last week. It fell to its lowest level since April 14 last Thursday. The settlement price of U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $3,243.30.

Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said gold prices could temporarily peak around $3,500, especially if some trade agreements begin to be reached and market risk appetite begins to break the extreme negative sentiment since tariff negotiations.

Data shows that non-agricultural employment opportunities increased by 177,000 last month. A Reuters survey had predicted a 130,000 increase in employment.

However, the report is retrospective, and the labor market is not yet able to reflect the impact of U.S. President Trump’s ever-changing tariff policies. After the jobs report was released, traders reduced their bets on the Fed's initial rate cut in June. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose.

Spot silver fell 1.3% to $31.98 per ounce; platinum price rose 0.1% to $959.20; palladium rose 0.6% to $946.18. All three metals recorded weekly declines.

Oil prices fell more than 1% last Friday, marking the biggest weekly decline since the end of March. OPEC+ advanced the originally planned meeting on Monday to Saturday, and decided to increase crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, far exceeding the previous planned monthly increase of 137,000 barrels per day.

The settlement price of U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $58.29 a barrel, while Brent crude oil futures closed down 1.4% to $61.29 a barrel. Last week, Brent crude fell more than 8%, while U.S. crude fell about 7.7%.

OPEC+ advances the originally planned meeting on Monday to Saturday, and decides to increase crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, far exceeding the previous planned monthly increase of 137,000 barrels per day.

Eight core member states (including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, etc.) agreed to cover nearly half of the 2.2 million barrels per day production cuts within three months, and Saudi Arabia's June quota was set at 9.367 million barrels per day. The meeting emphasized that the production increase plan can be suspended or reversed according to market conditions, indicating that OPEC+ still has a certain control over market stability. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak called on member states to xm-links.comply with production restrictions and xm-links.compensation plans to maintain supply and demand balance.

Anyway, oil traders are ready for OPEC+ to increase supply, and current concerns about a slowdown in the trade war has prompted market experts to lower their demand growth expectations this year. "The market is now fully focused on OPEC, and even the tariff war has taken a back seat," said Scott Shelton, an energy expert in UnitedICAP. "For the first time in three weeks, U.S. drillers have reduced the number of active rigs," said data from oilfield service provider Baker Hughes. The number of active rigs, which are an early indicator of future output, has dropped four times this week to 479.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell last Friday, but its declines against the euro and yen narrowed. Previous data showed that the world's largest economy had more jobs than expected in April, reflecting the stability of the labor market.

The dollar rose against the euro and yen for most of last week, as the prospect of a tariff deal for many trading partners is growing optimistic. Meanwhile, the employment report strengthens expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the xm-links.coming meetings and will not cut rates until the summer.

U.S. data shows that non-farm jobs increased by 177,000 in April, while the March data was revised down to 185,000, with the previous value of 228,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters predict 130,000 new jobs in April.

However, the report does not reflect the full impact of Trump's announcement of tariffs on the so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2.

Economists expect employment growth to slow in the xm-links.coming months once the impact of punitive tariffs is reflected in the data. Glenmede's investment research in PhiladelphiaJason Pride, head of research and strategy, said the employment report may allow the Fed to take a more patient attitude on the issue of interest rate cuts this year. Faced with the risk of stagflation caused by tariffs, the Fed is evaluating in real time which poses a greater threat to stagflation in the economic outlook. The continued and sound performance of the labor market may make the Fed temporarily believe that the economic situation has not taken a sharp turn, which has bought it more time to judge the actual impact of tariffs on inflation.

In addition to employment reports, tariffs are still the focus of investors' attention. Optimism in the market is heating up and hard data has not yet weakened like weaker survey data, Citibank analysts wrote in their latest research note.

In addition, Japan's top trade negotiator, Economy Regeneration Secretary Ryomasa Akazawa said he held in-depth talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on trade, non-tariff measures and economic security cooperation in Washington last Thursday.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Japan could use more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds it holds as a bargaining chip for trade negotiations with Washington.

After the employment report was released, the US dollar partially narrowed its decline against the Japanese yen, but it still fell during the day, falling 0.3% at 145.05 yen, but rose for the second consecutive week.

At the same time, the euro narrowed its gains against the U.S. dollar, but remained higher at $1.1326, or 0.3%. However, the euro fell 0.5% last week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-March.

The pound remained flat against the US dollar at $1.3280, but fell 0.3% last week, its biggest single-week decline since late February. The Australian dollar rose 1% against the US dollar to $0.6449.

After the employment data was released, U.S. interest rate futures markets cut their bets on the Fed's fastest rate cut in June, betting that the likelihood of a rate cut in June is 35.6%, down from about 58% expected late Thursday.

Overall, the market's rate cut is expected to drop to 80 basis points, or about three cuts, at 25 basis points each. And in the past few days, the interest rate futures market has been expected to cut interest rates by about 100 basis points.

International News

Trump said he had no intention of dismissing Powell hinted that Vance and Rubio could serve as president successors

Although he once again criticized Powell for slow rate cuts, U.S. President Trump reiterated that he did not intend to dismiss the Fed chairman. "Why should I do that?" Trump said, "I won't have to change people anyway." Powell's term will end in May 2026. When asked again last Friday whether he was seeking re-election, he said: "This is not something I'm considering doing." He also mentioned Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential successors. Trump said, "I hope to do well in these four years and then hand over the power to a good Republican, preferably an excellent Republican who can continue his career."

Pakistan announced a ban on import trade with India

On May 4 local time, the Pakistani government issued a notice announcing that it would prohibit the transfer of Indian-original goods in Pakistan by land, sea and air, and prohibit the transit of goods exported to India by third countries to pass through Pakistan.

Trump pushes interest rate cuts to face obstacles: bond traders and the Fed are waiting and watching expectations converge

President Trump uses strong job growth to address Fed Chairman Jerome? Powell put pressure on him to cut interest rates, but bond traders came to the opposite conclusion, reducing expectations for a rate cut. Latest data show that the labor market is stable and inflation is higher than the Fed’s target, which makes it expected that the Fed will remain on the wait-and-see pattern until more evidence of a recession emerges. Current pricing of futures contracts shows that the Fed will keep the benchmark interest rate stable until July or September, and economists have also postponed their forecasts for the next rate cut from June to July.

More than 15,000 USDA employees accepted the Trump administration's voluntary resignation plan

On May 4 local time, a record of a briefing of USDA and congressional staff showed that more than 15,000 USDA employees accepted a voluntary resignation incentive plan from the Trump administration, which accounted for about 15% of the total USDA workforce. Previously, in order to reduce the size of the federal workforce, the Trump administration has provided months of wages and benefits to federal employees who choose to leave.

"Are you worried about a recession?" Trump: In the end, he will be responsible for everything.

On May 4 local time, US President Trump once again criticized Fed Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates in an interview with NBC, and hinted that it was out of "personal hostility", but Trump said that Powell would not be ousted until the end of his 2026 term. In the interview, Trump also downplayed concerns about the possibility of a recession and said that the United States is in a transitional period and he is not worried about the economy shrinking during his term, but he does not rule out this possibility. When further asked whether he would be responsible for the impact his tariff policy had on the economy, Trump said he would eventually be responsible for everything. In addition, Trump once again mentioned in the interview that the possibility of using force to seize Greenland is not ruled out.

Major oil-producing countries will increase production beyond expectations for two consecutive months

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on the 3rd saying that the eight OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by an average of 411,000 barrels per day from June this year. This will be the second consecutive month for the above-mentioned countries to increase their oil production by a higher than expected margin. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman held an online meeting on the same day to discuss the situation and prospects of the international oil market. According to the statement, given the current solid market fundamentals and oil inventories are at a low level, eight countries have decided to adjust their output. At the same time, the eight countries will be based on market conditionsActively adjust the pace of increasing production to maintain stability in the oil market. The above eight countries announced voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023. Since then, production cuts have been postponed many times and were extended from December 2024 to the end of March 2025. In March this year, eight countries decided to gradually increase oil production from April 1 to withdraw voluntary production cuts.

Trump made clear: he would not seek a third term

In an interview, President Trump gave the clearest statement so far, indicating that he would leave the White House after the end of his second term and would not try to extend his term. He admitted that there were some limiting factors in seeking a third term. Trump also highlighted several other budding figures in the Republican Party, who said that after he no longer served as Republican elected leader, these people have the ability to carry the banner of "making America great again" (MAGA). He not only mentioned Vice President Vance, but also Secretary of State Rubio. "I'm going to be president for eight years, two terms. I always think it's important," Trump said in an interview aired on Sunday. In March this year, Trump said that it was "no joke" to consider his third run. In his latest interview, he once again mentioned that his allies strongly demanded that they run for election. But in the face of these persuasions, Trump said he was aware of the actual obstacles: "As far as I know, this is not allowed."

Buffett talked about solving the US fiscal deficit

Buffett said: "The issue of how to control government revenue and expenditure has never been really solved, and this problem has damaged many civilizations." Speaking of such a huge fiscal deficit in the United States, he said: The US fiscal deficit is unsustainable and may become uncontrollable, "and then you can only give up (the hope of controlling it)." He added that he did not want to take on the task of resolving the fiscal deficit, but someone should do it. Congress does not seem to be working to cut the U.S. fiscal deficit.

Buffett announced that he would retire at the end of the year

On May 3 local time, American investor Warren Buffett announced at Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholders' meeting that day that he planned to retire at the end of the year, shocking the shareholders present. Buffett said he would recommend Greg Abel, vice chairman of non-insurance business, to the Berkshire Hathaway board of directors, to take over as CEO at the end of the year, saying he believes the time for Greg to be the xm-links.company's CEO is ripe. Abel has been Buffett's designated successor for years, but it has been believed that he will not take over until Buffett's death. Previously, 94-year-old Buffett had always said that he had no retirement plan.

Domestic News

You can watch movies and enjoy shopping discounts. The "ticket economy" brings a new experience in holiday consumption

With a movie ticket, you can not only watch movies, but also shop and visit. In Beijing, major business districts and cultural and tourism venues continue the popularity of the Beijing International Film Festival, launching activities to enjoy discounts or free tickets with movie ticket stubs, attracting a large number of consumers. "Ticket Economy" refers to the ticket stub for consumers who rely on cultural and sports activities, and in the subsequentIn consumption scenarios, you can obtain discounts, points redemption and other rights, and use ticket stubs as a link to connect different consumption areas. As a new derivative consumption model, the "ticket economy" provides a new development path for the integration of business, tourism, culture and sports.

The cross-regional flow of people in the whole society is expected to exceed 280 million on the third day of the May Day holiday

It was learned from the Ministry of Transport that on the third day of the May Day holiday, transportation and travel remained at a high level, and the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society is expected to exceed 280.25 million. Transport departments in various places have taken multiple measures to increase travel guarantee efforts. On the third day of the holiday, the national railway passenger volume is expected to reach 18 million, and the highway personnel turnover is expected to reach 258.02 million, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year.

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