Hassett won the biggest bet as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, Powell stayed and left to shake the gold market, gold price was 3,350 yuan and long-short battle

Basic news

On Thursday (July 17 Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,348.88 per ounce. Gold prices rose sharply on Wednesday after reports that U.S. President Trump planned to fire Fed Chairman Powell, but the rise in gold narrowed after Trump denied it; U.S. crude oil trading was around $65.42 per bin, and oil prices closed slightly lower on Wednesday as increased U.S. fuel inventories and concerns about the wider impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy overshadowed some signs of increased demand.

Focus on this day

Federal Governor Coogler delivered a speech on the property market and the U.S. economic outlook, and South Africa hosted a meeting of Treasury Secretary and Central Bank Governors, until July 18.

Stock Market

U.S. indexes closed slightly higher on Wednesday, despite the market's half-hour chaos that day, as multiple media reports that U.S. President Trump plans to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and the Nasdaq index still set a new record.

Near noon, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell more than 1%, the dollar fell sharply, and U.S. Treasury yields soared as Bloomberg quoted an unnamed White House official as saying Powell could be replaced. Reuters also reported that some sources revealed that Trump was open to the firing of Powell. Trump quickly denied the reports while again slamming Powell for failing to cut interest rates.

Dylan Bell, chief investment officer at CalBay Investments, said: "The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial to the economy as a whole, so the market is seeing the initial reports.Reaction immediately. ”

Stock markets rebounded after Trump denied the firing of Powell, and the Nasdaq closed up 52.69 points to 20,730.49 points. This is the fifth time the technology-based index hit a record high in six trading days.

Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.53% to 44,254.78 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 6,263.70 points.

Stock and Stock Markets have initially caused violent fluctuations in U.S. stocks, but then they performed strongly. The S&P 500 set a new closing record last week.

Despite optimism, investors are still worried that Fed Chairman Powell could be removed before his term expires in May next year. Trump repeatedly criticized his failure to cut interest rates quickly.

As rumors of Powell's removal leaked, the Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index, the "Panience Index", hit a three-week high and then fell.

CalBay's chief investment officer Bell pointed out that although the risk of volatility brought by headlines remains, the overall positive U.S. economy is the core factor driving investor behavior.

While Trump demanded a credit relaxation, Fed officials have refused to cut interest rates until the question of whether his tariffs on U.S. trading partners will rekindle inflation.

Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic reiterated this concern in an interview with Fox Finance on Wednesday, saying that the rise in import taxes could Can bring pressure.

Inflation is the focus of the week. Producer price data released on Wednesday showed that June was flat month-on-month as tariff-driven xm-links.commodity costs were offset by weak service prices.

Just a day after unexpectedly strong consumer inflation had weakened hopes of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Trump’s tariffs fueled prices to some extent. Wednesday was the second day of the earnings season, with major Wall Street banks strengthening again but failing to push up their own stock prices.

Goldman Sachs climbed 0.9% after earnings surged 22%, while Bank of America and Morgan Stanley fell 0.3% and 1.3%, respectively, despite reported rising profits.

Strong Sheng xm-links.company rose 6.2%, the second best-performing stock in the S&P 500 after halved its cost expectations related to new tariffs this year and raised its full-year sales and profit expectations.

Semiconductor stocks performed poorly after news that Nvidia would be allowed to sell its H2O chips in China, driving the gains in the previous trading day. The semiconductor index fell 0.4% from a 12-month high hit on Tuesday.

Gold market

Gold prices rose sharply on Wednesday after reports that U.S. President Trump planned to fire Fed Chairman Powell, but the gains narrowed after Trump denied it. Trump said he did not intend to fire Powell, but refused to rule out any possibility, citing the Fed's $2.5 billionAn investigation into overspending of the meta-renovation project was conducted.

Spot gold rose 1% to $3354.01 per ounce, after an increase of 1.6%. The settlement price of US gold futures rose 0.7% to $3,359.1.

Donald Securities xm-links.commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said: "The news that Trump is considering firing Powell has pushed up the price of gold, but he later clarified that it is unlikely. The gold market is tug-of-war due to this capricious fluctuation."

Israel launched a fierce air strike on Damascus, damaged Syria's defense ministry and attacked near the presidential palace. The attack exacerbated geopolitical concerns and supported the buying of safe-haven gold.

Trade, Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU imported products last week. If trade talks with Washington fail, the EU Executive xm-links.committee may be prepared to impose tariffs on US goods worth $84.1 billion. Data shows that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly remained flat on a month-on-month basis in June, up 0.3% in May, which provided support for gold prices.

Spot silver rose 0.5% to $37.89 per ounce. Platinum rose nearly 3% to $1,412.55. Palladium rose 1.8% to $1,227.73. Oil markets

Oil prices closed slightly lower on Wednesday as rising U.S. fuel inventories and concerns about the wider impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy overshadowed some signs of increased demand.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.3% at $68.52 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures closed down 0.2% at $66.38.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels last week. Analysts expect a 1 million barrel reduction.

EIA data shows that distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 4.2 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 200,000 barrels.

EIA said crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week to 422.2 million barrels, an expected decrease of 552,000 barrels. "I think the market is disappointed by the sharp increase in gasoline and distillate stocks as refineries are converting oil into refined oil at a close to the highest operating rate this year," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "I think investors are also disappointed by the decline in gasoline demand after July 4, because we are now in the summer driving season." The supply of gasoline products representing demand fell by 670,000 barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day.

U.S. President Trump's tariff war continues, and the EU Executive xm-links.committee is preparing to take possible retaliation in the event that negotiations with Washington fail to reach an EU trade agreement.

OPEC's monthly report released on Tuesday predicts that the global economy will perform better in the second half of the year. Brazil and India addedThe economy exceeded expectations, while the U.S. and the EU are recovering from last year.

Foreign market

The dollar fell on Wednesday but got rid of its lows after U.S. President Trump denied his plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell.

Bloomberg reported that the president may fire Powell soon. A source also told Reuters that Trump was open to the firing of Powell and had a positive response to some Republican lawmakers in a poll on the firing of Powell. But Trump said the reports were not true.

Trump said: "I don't rule out any possibility, but I think the possibility is small unless he has to leave because of fraud." Trump is referring to recent criticisms of the Fed's historic headquarters of $2.5 billion in renovation projects overspending in the Fed's historic headquarters in Washington.

Removing Powell's term before he ends in May next year will have a negative impact on the dollar because it will undermine the credibility of the U.S. financial system and the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency.

Juan Perez, senior trading director at MonexUSA, Washington, said: "What can kill the value of the dollar and absolutely destroy people's confidence in the dollar is attacking the independence and authority of the Federal Reserve in any way, form or form."

Trump has criticized Powell for months for not cutting interest rates, saying interest rates should be 1% or less.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar exchange rate against a basket of currencies (including the Japanese yen and the euro), fell 0.25% to 98.34 at last; the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1633.

The US dollar fell 0.7% against the yen to 147.82. The pound appreciated 0.24% to $1.3411.

Francesco Pesole, a Forex strategist at Dutch International in London, said that if Trump fired Powell, the market could see a bigger negative reaction in the dollar. "The euro/dollar at $1.17 should rise because of the impact. The market has not yet fully priced all of this. If Powell is removed today, the Fed will cut interest rates in September."

The euro hit a high of $1.1721 on Wednesday. Currently, federal funds rate futures traders have increased their rate cuts by year-end from 44 basis points before news reports to 47 basis points.

The dollar rose earlier against the euro, as traders bets that despite steady producer price inflation data on Wednesday, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates twice this year after rising consumer prices in June was likely to be lower.

As the rise in xm-links.commodity costs due to import tariffs was offset by weakness in the service industry, U.S. producer prices remained unexpectedly flat in June.

Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose in June as costs of some xm-links.commodities rose, indicating that Trump's tariffs began to have an impact on inflation.

Investors continue to focus on tariff issues before the August 1 deadline, when many trading partners will face higher trade tariffs.

Trump said Wednesday that the United States may "maintain the tariff rate set by the tariff letter" for Japan and may reach another trade agreement with India, after he announced an agreement with Indonesia on Tuesday.

In Japan, investors are focusing on the possible transfer of power in the House of Lords elections this weekend, which could make an already fragile fiscal situation even more tense, with long-term bond yields soaring to record highs as the vote approaches.

International News

The EU announced a 2 trillion euro long-term budget

On the 16th, the European xm-links.commission announced a long-term budget of about 2 trillion euros, focusing on increasing investment in priorities such as national defense and xm-links.competitiveness. The budget covers seven years from 2028 to 2034, and aims to provide strategic guidance and financial support for enhancing the overall market xm-links.competitiveness of the EU and narrowing the development gap between member states by establishing EU medium- and long-term policy priority areas and investment directions. The budget funds are focused on investments in defense, scientific research and agriculture, providing assistance to Ukraine, as well as addressing climate change and protecting biodiversity. The budget also plans to reform relevant rules such as agricultural subsidies and economic development funding. According to relevant EU procedures, the budget must be unanimously agreed by 27 member states and approved by the European Parliament.

Israel once again attacks the Suveda area of Syria

On the evening of the 16th local time, Israel launched a new round of air strikes on the rural areas of Syria, Dela and Suveda. Earlier in the day, Israeli Defense Minister Katz posted on his social account that Israel "has ended" and that the next step will be a "painful blow." The Israeli army will continue to carry out powerful military operations in the Suveda area in southern Syria, "until the forces attacking the Druzes are xm-links.completely eliminated."

White House National Economic xm-links.commission Director Hassett became the biggest favorite to succeed Powell, fully supporting Trump's economic route

According to people familiar with the matter, Kevin Hassett, one of the longest-serving economic advisers in US President Trump (second) term, is currently the hottest candidate to replace Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve next year. Hassett is currently the director of the White House National Economic xm-links.commission, and he and Kevin Warsh are two main candidates for the successor of the Federal Reserve Chairman. Finance Minister Becent also participated in the selection and provided advice that if others did not perform well, Becent himself might get the job. In addition, Federal Reserve Director Christopher Waller is regarded as a "dark horse" candidate.

Federal “Black Book”: Manufacturing activity has dropped slightly. Recruitment of enterprises remains cautious. On July 16, local time, the Fed issued a “Black Book” for economic status. "Black Book" shows that from late May toIn early July, economic activity increased slightly. Uncertainty remains high, leading to continued caution in xm-links.companies. Tourism activities rose and fell, manufacturing activities fell slightly, and non-financial services activities were almost unchanged on average, but there were differences between regions. The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Recruitment is generally cautious, which many attribute to ongoing economic and policy uncertainty. More and more regions point out that there is a labor shortage in skilled jobs. Employers in some regions have increased their investment in automation and artificial intelligence, aiming to reduce additional hiring needs. Prices in all regions have increased. In all 12 regions, businesses reported that they were facing moderate to significant input cost pressures associated with tariffs, especially raw materials used in manufacturing and construction industries. Many xm-links.companies pass on at least part of the cost increase to consumers by raising prices or charging surcharges. People from all walks of life expect cost pressures to continue to rise in the xm-links.coming months, increasing the likelihood that consumer prices will start to rise faster by the end of the summer.

Trump said he does not intend to fire Fed Chairman Powell

U.S. President Trump: (when asked whether he would fire Fed Chairman Powell) There is no plan, no talk about fire Fed Chairman Powell. Concerns about (Federal) reforms. Changes will occur in the next eight months; a person who performs well will be appointed.

Trump will issue tariff letters to more than 150 countries. The tax rate may be 10% or 15%.

U.S. President Trump said that he will issue tariff letters to more than 150 countries. The tax rate may be set uniformly at 10% or 15%, further advancing his trade agenda. "We will issue payment notices to more than 150 countries, with tariff rates specified on the notice," Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday. He added, "For this group, every country will be the same." These countries are "not big countries and have little trade volume with us." Trump said in an interview later that day that the tariff rate "may be 10% or 15%, and we have not decided yet."

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is 4.1% and the probability of the September cut is 56.3%. According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 43.7%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 54%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 2.2%.

Domestic News

U.S.-China Trade National xm-links.committee: The Chinese market is still the key to maintaining global xm-links.competitiveness

On July 16, local time, the U.S.-China Trade National xm-links.committee released the 2025 "China Business Environment Survey", the report stated that Sino-US relations and the impact of tariffs have become the main challenges facing US xm-links.companies, but the Chinese market is still the key to maintaining global xm-links.competitiveness. The report shows thatThe main challenges facing U.S.-based xm-links.companies' operations in China include tense Sino-US relations, disruptive bilateral tariff measures and a decline in corporate market share. Sino-US relations continue to top the list among the business challenges faced by U.S. xm-links.companies in China, and amid the recent resurgence of trade frictions between the two countries, tariff issues have also jumped from eighth place last year to second place. More than 80% of the xm-links.companies surveyed said that their investment in China is to serve the Chinese local market. At the same time, almost all xm-links.companies believe that their business in China is indispensable to maintaining their xm-links.competitiveness on a global scale.

International organizations are optimistic about China's supply chain Huang Renxun praised China's Open Source AI

As the world's first national-level exhibition of supply chains, the Chain Expo has gradually developed into a key bridge to promote global industrial chain coordination and accelerate scientific and technological innovation. Representatives of international institutions and foreign-funded enterprises participating in the conference said that China's continuous innovation and upgrading supply chain has provided them with more cooperation opportunities. Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, said: "China's open source AI is a catalyst for promoting global progress, giving all countries and industries the opportunity to participate in this AI revolution." Panasonic Global Vice President Tetsuro Honma believes: "China's supply chain is becoming more and more fulfilling and upgrading." At the scene of the Chain Expo, many guests from international institutions also said that China's supply chain is constantly upgrading, attracting more and more foreign xm-links.companies to xm-links.come to China to seek cooperation and business opportunities.

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