The non-agricultural outcry is no longer a problem! The golden bull market craze is unstoppable!

Although the market has been anxiously awaiting non-farm employment reports to decide on the next move. However, even after the report is released, uncertainty remains.

The financial markets are changing this week, and due to the upset U.S. non-farm employment data, expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have heated up.

Affected by weak non-farm, spot gold once again hit a record high, approaching $3,600 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 4% this week, closing higher for the third consecutive week. Spot silver also rose for three consecutive weeks, at a high level since 2011.

While the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, the dollar has remained unexpectedly strong, and has not fallen sharply even after the disappointing non-farm employment data.

Forex Market:The US dollar index recorded a slight increase at the beginning of the week, with yields of long-term bonds such as Britain, France, Germany and Japan rising to years of highs, putting pressure on non-US currencies and the US dollar was able to breathe. Subsequently, a series of weak U.S. employment data dragged down the performance of the U.S. index. The non-farm data was upset on Friday, and the dollar fell sharply in the short term and was close to erasing all the gains this week, finally closing at 97.72, with a slight decline of 0.12% overall during the week. In terms of non-US currencies, fiscal concerns led to the sale of bonds of Britain, France and Germany and other countries. The pound and the euro performed weakly this week, but after Friday's non-agricultural data, they were close to erasing all previous losses and turning to rise; the US dollar against the Japanese yen is expected to record a second consecutive week of rise. On Tuesday, the ruling party broke through the 148 integer mark, but returned to below the mark on Friday, followed by the US dollar after non-agricultural mark on Friday.

Gold Market:Spot gold rose sharply this week and has been repeatedlyIt hit a new high, rising for seven consecutive trading days as of Wednesday, mainly due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the market's risk aversion due to tariffs and the outlook for the U.S. economy. Weak non-agricultural products on Friday helped gold hit a new high, briefly breaking through $3,600 per ounce, closing at 3,586.6, up 4% this week, closing higher for the third consecutive week. Spot silver also rose for three consecutive weeks, closing at $40.96 per ounce this week, at a high level since 2011.

Crude Oil Market: International oil prices overall fell this week, mainly because the prospect of further increase in production of OPEC+ has exacerbated concerns about oversupply. Despite the renewed tension in Russia and Ukraine and the United States issued the latest round of sanctions to crack down on Iran's oil exports, the U.S. and Brent oil have fallen for three consecutive days as of Friday.

Review of the news this week

1. Non-agricultural outcry, gold is new high, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates rapidly in succession?

Friday data showed that the number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by only 22,000 in August, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The June data was revised down to a negative value, causing concerns in the labor market. After the data was released, futures traders increased their bets that the Fed would cut interest rates quickly and continuously starting this month, and even expected a 50 basis point cut this month. Gold continued to hit a record high and once approached the $3,590 mark.

Although the average hourly wage in August increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations, the number of employed people was below 100,000 for four consecutive months, continuing the weakest employment growth momentum since the epidemic.

The total data in the previous two months was revised down by 21,000, of which the number of new non-agricultural employment in June was down from 14,000 to -13,000, which was the first negative growth since December 2020. After the revision, the average job growth in the United States in the past three months was only 29,000. White House economic adviser Hassett said he expects that the employment data for August will be revised up by nearly 70,000 in the future.

The Federal Reserve released its latest Beige Book this week, showing that US economic activity and employment levels have been basically the same in recent weeks, consumer spending has stagnated or declined, but prices have risen across the board, and most jurisdictions have reported that tariffs have led to higher costs. The job market also showed signs of slowing down, with the migrant labor force declining. Although some jurisdictions have expanded their economies, xm-links.companies are generally concerned about the prospects.

Many senior Fed officials released a signal of interest rate cuts this week, emphasizing that weak labor market is the main reason for interest rate cuts. Fed governor Waller said the current interest rate is above neutral and he has been supporting the rate cut at the next meeting, believing that action should be taken before the labor market deteriorates, because the job market usually deteriorates rapidly once it turns bad. He expects multiple rate cuts that may be seen in the next three to six months, but stresses that the Fed's actions will remain data-driven.

Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic also reiterated his view that the rate cut is xm-links.coming, believing that the current policy is slightly tightened and the labor market slows down to moderately relax the policy, which may cut interest rates for the remainder of the year 25 basis points are suitable. Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkali said that given the neutral federal funds rate is about 3%, there is still room for a moderate cut in the next few years, but he did not clarify the specific timing of the rate cut, citing uncertainty brought by trade policy.

New York Fed Chairman Williams said there is no evidence that tariffs have pushed up overall inflation, and the U.S. economic growth is expected to continue to slow down in the xm-links.coming months, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5% next year. He stressed that high interest rates have caused a cooling of the labor market, and that if the current interest rates are maintained, it may cause damage to the job market. Williams believes that the rate cut will be appropriate in the future, but there is no clear timing for the rate cut.

2. Trump urgently appealed to the Supreme Court for tariff authority

The Trump administration appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday and requested a "quick ruling" to overturn the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals' ruling that it was illegal to impose tariffs on many countries. Previously, the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on August 29 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act cited by Trump did not give him the power to impose full tariffs. The Supreme Court may accept the case and make a ruling in the summer of 2026.

Trump stressed that if the federal court's ruling takes effect, it will cause a devastating blow to the United States. He said he would have to withdraw the tariffs if the tariff ruling was unfavorable and could have to refund trillions of dollars. He also said that the tariff ruling has no legal basis, and if the tariffs are abolished, the United States may become a third world country.

In addition, Trump said this week that he would impose tariffs on imported semiconductors "soon", but exempted Apple and other xm-links.companies that promised to increase investment in the United States. He stressed that "quite considerable" tariffs will be imposed on xm-links.companies that do not xm-links.come to invest, while xm-links.companies that plan to build factories in the United States will not be imposed. Previously, Trump had hinted that the tariff rate could be much higher than 100%, or even 200% or 300%.

On Thursday, the United States reached a trade agreement with Japan, and Trump signed an executive order to impose a 15% benchmark tariff on almost all Japanese imported products, and the car tariffs dropped from 27.5% to 15%. Japan promises to invest $550 billion in U.S. projects, purchase $8 billion in U.S. agricultural products every year, purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, and increase U.S. defense spending. Investment will be decided by Trump, and Japan will only receive a 45-day deadline. The agreement also involves Japan's minimum tax rates, xm-links.commercial aircraft and parts tariffs, and other terms in the fields of chips and medicines.

3. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishibata "betrayed everyone"? The Liberal Democratic Party’s resignation wave is xm-links.coming

The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan finalized a report on the reasons for the failure of the Senate election on Tuesday, which blamed the party itself, including the lack of attractiveness of inflation countermeasures, previous political scandals and failure to attract young voters.

Thereafter, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was facing a wave of resignation within the ruling party. His four major allies, including Secretary-General Yuki Moriyama, President of Policy Investigation Gonode, President of General Affairs Toshiichi Suzuki and Chairman of Election Countermeasures Makoto Kihara all expressed their intention to resign in order to vote for the Liberal Democratic Party in the Senate.Responsible for failures in the lift.

Ishibashi clearly stated that he had no intention of lingering at his position, and it was only a matter of time before he resigned. He hopes to make appropriate decisions at the right time, step down in an orderly manner, avoid political chaos, and fulfill the last duties of the national leaders.

At present, more than 10 deputy cabinet ministers and government officials have publicly requested a Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in advance, indicating that the prime minister's leadership in the cabinet has been challenged. The party veterans represented by the highest adviser Aso Taro has also asserted that Shigeru Ishiba's continued rule is "unforgivable" and the "encirclement" that demands his resignation is steadily tightening.

4. The World Gold Council plans to launch "Digital Gold"

The World Gold Council plans to launch digital gold, which is expected to be piloted in London in January next year.

This move could revolutionize the physical gold market in London, with a scale of $900 billion. The association's CEO said that if gold is digitalized, it may be used to meet margin requirements, act as collateral, etc., thereby generating returns.

To this end, the World Gold Council has launched a new digital business model called the Gold Equity Pool (PGI), allowing banks and investors to buy and sell part of the ownership of physical gold held in separate accounts.

According to a white paper released by the World Gold Council and Linklaters Law Firm, the framework relies on a small group of core participants who share the subject gold in the trust structure. This is the latest step in the World Gold Council’s multi-year project to digitalize the gold market, after which the association also launched a blockchain database for refineries and gold nuggets in January.

5. OPEC+ is considering further increasing production and is going to "open the gate and release water" to regain market share?

OPEC+ reportedly plans to consider further boosting oil production at its meeting on Sunday, a move aimed at regaining market share.

Since April, OPEC+ has reversed its production cut strategy, raising its quota by about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 2.4% of global demand. This production increase is designed to increase market share while responding to pressure from Trump to lower oil prices. However, these increase in production did not effectively lower oil prices. Oil prices are still trading around $70 a barrel, supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, which has stimulated further increase in production by xm-links.competitors such as the United States.

If OPEC+ increases production again, it will mean that the organization will lift the second round of production cuts more than a year earlier than originally planned, and restore production of about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand. Eight OPEC+ countries are scheduled to hold an online meeting on Sunday, which is expected to determine production in October. However, some analysts and OPEC+ sources said the organization may also suspend production increases in October, and the final decision has not been made.

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