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9.9 Gold continues to break through new highs and latest market trend analysis, crude oil operation suggestions
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: 9.9 gold continues to break through new highs and latest market ups and downs trend analysis, crude oil today's operation suggestions." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
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Latest gold market trend analysis:
Gold news analysis: On Tuesday (September 9, Beijing time), spot gold trading around $3,631/ounce. Because weak US labor market data strengthened the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts next week, gold prices continued to hit a historical high of $3,646.23/ounce on Monday. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue to rise to around 3,700-3,730; during the US session on Monday (September 8), spot gold fluctuated narrowly above $3,600, and once rose to a historical high of $3,645. The previous weak US non-farm report triggered a sharp drop in the US dollar's low since July 28, but it rebounded slightly in the new week, and the equity market's risk appetite rebounded, causing gold to enter the consolidation rhythm at a high level. AllIn this case, the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's probability of cutting interest rates in September is as high as 92%, and the total of three interest rate cuts this year may be carried out. The gold bull structure has not been damaged.
Gold technical analysis: The gold daily line closed for the first time after a continuous positive trend last Friday, which is a typical single-negative correction pattern. In the technical aspect, the logic of "in the strong unilateral pull-up market, the single-negative correction is likely to close the positive the next day after the single-negative correction" was verified many times before, so today we need to continue to use the core idea of "relying on the 5-day moving average to be bullish and looking at closing the positive". Through the correction of the retracement on Friday, the current gold price has been significantly closer to the short-term moving average. There is no "adjustment risk caused by excessive price separation from the moving average." Instead, it has reserved sufficient space for subsequent pull-ups. Today, the 5-day moving average has moved up to the 3567 line, but it only touched 3578 at the lowest in the morning, and then quickly broke 3600 and exerted force. In the short term, the probability of retracement touching the 5-day moving average is relatively low. Under the strong pattern, it is more inclined to directly attack based on short-term support.
From the 4-hour level, the 18-point closing reported a large positive line, further strengthening the strong structure. The core support in this cycle has been clarified: the 5-day moving average support moves up to the 3600 line (simultaneously serves as the top-bottom conversion support), and the 10-day moving average support is at the 3585 line. In subsequent operations, as long as the gold price falls back to the 3600 or 3585 support level and confirms stability, it can follow the trend and rise. xm-links.combined with the resonant bullish signal between the daily line and the 4-hour line, once the 3600 mark stands firm, it is highly likely to start a new round of strong attacks and advance to a higher goal.
The hourly gold on the market broke through the 3600 mark overnight and continued its upward trend. The backtest this morning happened to provide an opportunity to follow the trend. In a strong unilateral market, the retracement range is usually limited, reaching a maximum of 50% segmentation. Most of the time, it will stabilize at the 382% segmentation level. The low point of this morning was 3578, which fell accurately at the 382% segmentation support level. The market then ran sideways. This "sideways do not fall" manifestation is essentially to repair short-term divergence and overbought through time. After the price approaches the middle track of the hourly line, it will form the primary bullish support. Therefore, when the 3580 line in the afternoon is in place, it is a good opportunity to try to follow up. If the 50% split is given at a low level in the future, you can further replenish your positions and fit the unilateral trend rhythm.
It should be clear that there is no need to be afraid of highs in a strong unilateral bullish pattern: it is easy to take advantage of the trend and exert force. As long as you firmly understand the bullish trend, you will not hesitate because of the high price. In your eyes, you will be a low-price opportunity. On the contrary, if you have bearish imagination, you will not only miss the market, but also frequently stop losses due to repeated trials on high altitudes. The core issue is still the grasp of the trend direction and rhythm. After the idea of following up at 3580 in the afternoon was implemented, the European market rose as scheduled, broke through 3600 and stood firm, and then rose to 3610, and then rose to 3622. The bulls were extremely fast. In the future, we need to continue to adhere to the principle of "only long but not short", patiently wait for the possible short pullbacks that may occur today, and seize the second bullish opportunity.
Today's operations need to focus on two cores: support and target: support endThe top-bottom conversion level 3600 line is the primary defense (this position is synchronously fitted with the mid-track moving node of the hourly line, which has both technical and trend support attributes). If 3622 is under pressure in the short term, it enters a correction, xm-links.combined with the segmentation logic of the 3580-3622 upward band, 3606, 3601, 3595 will form a step-by-step support, and it is necessary to use 3600 up and down as the core support range. After the retracement is confirmed to stabilize, you can arrange a second follow-up; the target end is calculated based on the same increase in the rising flag shape, and the subsequent bullish space is expected to extend to the -3650 line. In operation, you can rely on the support step-by-step, always with a new high as the main goal orientation, and do not easily deviate from the unilateral bullish rhythm due to small short-term pressure. Overall, in terms of gold's short-term operation ideas today, He Bosheng recommends that the main focus is on retracement and low-long, rebound high-altitude as the auxiliary. The short-term focus on the 3650-3660 line of resistance above, and the short-term focus on the 3610-3600 line of support below.
The latest trend analysis of crude oil market:
Crude oil news analysis: Oil prices rebounded in early Monday, partially recovering last week's decline. Brent crude oil rose 0.4% to $65.73 per barrel, while US WTI crude oil rose 0.3% to $62.08 per barrel. This rebound was mainly driven by OPEC+'s latest decision to increase production. OPEC+ reached a consensus at its online meeting on Sunday, deciding to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from October. This is much lower than 555,000 barrels per day in August and September, and 411,000 barrels per day in July and June. Analysts pointed out that the slowdown in output growth shows that member countries are concerned about weakening global demand in the future, especially the risk of oversupply and demand that may occur in the northern hemisphere in the winter. Judging from OPEC+'s decision, its strategy is shifting from "actively expanding production capacity" to "cautiously controlling the rhythm." While slowing production increases will help support oil prices, oil prices may still fluctuate in the range of $60 to $66 per barrel in the future as winter demand pressures overlap with weak U.S. economic data.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart level, after the K-line continues to close and stop, it forms a bottom of a narrow range, and the oil price gradually crosses the small-level moving average, and the overall situation is still suppressed, and the medium-term subjective trend is downward. From the perspective of kinetic energy, the MACD indicator forms a golden cross below the zero axis, indicating that the action energy gradually weakens signal appears, and it is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will remain downward. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continued to decline and had good continuity. The short positions are arranged in the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction remains downward. The MACD indicator is below the zero axis, and the bear momentum has the advantage. The rhythm of the second round of decline trend is clear and the pace of the main and secondary main is clear, and it is expected that the crude oil trend will remain downward. Overall, in terms of today's operational ideas of crude oil, He Bosheng recommends that rebound high altitudes should be the main focus, and the retracement should be the low long as the auxiliary. The short-term focus should be on the 64.0-65.0 line resistance at the top, and the short-term focus should be on the 61.0-60.0 line support at the bottom.
This article was exclusively planned by gold crude oil analyst He Bosheng. Due to the delay in network push, the above content belongs toPersonally, since the online publication is timely and the suggestions in the article are for learning reference only, and the risks of operating based on this are at your own risk. No matter whether the views and strategies of the article are consistent with everyone's opinions, you can xm-links.come to me to discuss and learn together! There is nothing difficult in the world, I am afraid of those who are interested. Investment itself carries risks, reminding everyone to identify the authoritative platform and the strong teacher. Fund safety is the first priority, secondly, consider operational risks, and finally how to make a profit.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Analysis of the latest market ups and downs trends of 9.9 gold continues to break through new highs, today's operation suggestions for crude oil". It is carefully xm-links.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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