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market analysis
【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Downward Pressure Until US Jobs Data
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Analysis: Downward Pressure Until US Jobs Data". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- Last week's trading was generally bearish for the EUR/USD currency pair, with losses extending to the 1.0732 support level.
- By the end of last week's trading, it attempted to recover, but its gains did not exceed the 1.0845 level before closing stable around the 1.0826 level.
- I expect the downward momentum for the EUR/USD pair to remain around and below the psychological support level of 1.0800 until the reaction to the announcement of US jobs data, which will have a strong and direct impact on the future of US Federal Reserve policies.
What is expected for the US dollar in the xm-links.coming days?
Bank of America expects further losses for the dollar in the second quarter; He stated, "If history is any guide, the US Dollar Index (DXY) could return to 100 in the second quarter, indicating renewed strength for the euro, the Japanese yen, and other G10 currencies."
In general, the US dollar will be vulnerable if US economic conditions deteriorate, but there has been no evidence of labour market pressure in the latest jobless claims data. According to economists, even if the US dollar sees a short-term recovery, the deteriorating fiscal outlook, slowing consumer spending, and increasing political uncertainty – particularly regarding the DOGE index – will overshadow the US currency as the year progresses.
Trading Tips:
We still recommend selling the euro against the US dollar from every upside level, but without risk.
US Stock Markets Affected by Trade Concerns
In recent trading and across stock trading platforms, US stock market indices closed sharply lower, affected by rising inflation concerns and increasing uncertainty regarding trade policy. According to trading, the S&P 500 index fell 2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 715 points, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%. Tech giants led the decline, with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta shares falling more than 4% each, while Microsoft shares fell 3%.
In general, inflation concerns have escalated after the final reading of the University of Michigan's US Consumer Confidence Index for March showed the highest long-term inflation expectations since 1993. At the same time, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred US inflation measure, rose by 2.8% in February, exceeding expectations, while consumer spending grew by 0.4%. Investors are currently preparing for further trade disruptions as Trump's 25% car tariff takes effect this week, raising fears of retaliatory action by major trading partners.
According to trading data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by more than 1% and 2%, respectively, marking their fifth weekly decline in six weeks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8https://xm-links.com%.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
According to trading on the daily chart, downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair will increase if bears manage to stabilize below the 1.0800 support level. Technically, the next most important support levels will be 1.0720 and 1.0600, respectively. From the latter level, technical indicators will move towards strong oversold levels. Conversely, based on the performance on the daily chart, no real and strong trend reversal will occur unless the EUR/USD price moves above the psychological resistance of 1.1000.
The EUR/USD pair will be affected in the xm-links.coming days by the US administration's reaction to the imposition of tariffs that could harm the European economy, in addition to signals from global central bank officials regarding tightening or not.
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