【XM Group】: Oil prices hit five-week highs, tariff uncertainty boosts safe-haven demand, gold prices hit their strongest quarterly performance in 39 years

Basic news

On Tuesday (April 1, Beijing time), spot gold trading around 3125.44. Gold continued its strong trend on Monday, rising above $3120 per ounce, setting a new record high as uncertainty surrounding tariffs boosted safe-haven demand, causing gold to hit its strongest quarterly performance since 1986; U.S. crude oil trading around $71.45 per barrel, oil prices climbed nearly 3.5% to a five-week high on Monday, fearing that supply could drop if US President Trump fulfilled the threat of imposing more tariffs on Russia and could attack Iran.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.55% at 5611.85 points on Monday; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% at 42,001.76 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.14% to 17,299.29 points.

Focus on this day

China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in March, RBA interest rate resolution, European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech at the AI ​​conference, and Federal Reserve Barkin made a speech on monetary policy and economic prospects.

Stock and Nasdaq Index recorded their worst quarterly performance since 2022 on Monday as uncertainty on the Trump administration’s economic agenda disrupted U.S. stocks in the first quarter of 2025.

The two major indicators stock indexes fell sharply in March, recording the largest monthly percentage drop since December 2022. This xm-links.comes as President Trump launches a series of new tariffs that raise concerns that a global trade war could hurt economic growth and exacerbate inflation.

In the first quarter, the S&P 500 index plummeted 4.6%; the Nasdaq index plummeted 10.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, also failed to survive the uneasiness, slid 1.3% in the first three months.

LPLFinancial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist said: "In the first quarter of this year, investors felt more or less helpless because they could not formulate effective trading strategies in the face of such a situation."

As investors sell growth xm-links.companies, the "Big Seven" hit the U.S. stock market hard. These stocks have driven the market up sharply in the bull markets throughout 2023 and 2024. Tesla fell nearly 36% in the first quarter, while Nvidia fell nearly 20%.

The biggest lesson we learned from the first quarter is that diversification is not outdated. Whether you are between asset classes or within asset classes, if you avoid the danger of market concentration, you actually perform much better than some major indexes."

In the quarter, information technology and consumer discretionary products (both sectors are heavily influenced by large tech xm-links.companies) experienced double-digit percentage declines, but most of the S&P 11 sectors rose during the same period, with energy stocks rising by 9.3%.

On Monday, both the S&P 500 and the Dow both temporarily escaped the uncertainty of the Trump administration's upcoming tariff plan. More detailed tariff plans are expected to be introduced on Wednesday.

Trump said on Sunday that his upcoming tariff plan will include all countries. He has imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel and cars.

Financial stocks helped boost the S&P 500 on Monday. DiscoverFinancialServices and CapitalOneFinancial both rose, up 7.5% and 3.3%, respectively, as investors bet their merger will eventually be approved by regulators.

The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index, which is usually regarded as a safe haven for the stock market, became the leading sector with a 1.6% increase. The energy sector also rose due to the jump in crude oil prices. Wall Street's so-called "Fear Index" CBOE volatility index jumped to 22.28 points, hitting a two-week high.

Due to uncertainty in tariffs, Goldman Sachs raised the possibility of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35%, lowered the S&P 500's year-end target to 5,700 points, and predicted that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates.

The focus of this week will also be economic data, including an ISM business activity survey and a crucial non-farm employment report. Several Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, will also speak this week.

Golden market

Gold continued strong Monday, rising above $3,120 per ounce, hitting a new record high due to uncertainty surrounding tariffsQualitative boosts demand for safe-haven, bringing gold prices to their strongest quarterly performance since 1986.

Spot gold rose 1% to $3116.94 per ounce, setting an all-time high of $3128.06 during the session. U.S. gold futures rose 1.2% to close at $3,150.30. David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said: "The ongoing uncertainty in tariffs has affected the stock market and brought another round of safe-haven buying to the gold market. There are certain technical resistance areas on the way upward, which may lead to a small amount of profit-taking or pullback. But the ongoing bullish trend still exists. Fundamental support remains."

U.S. President Trump is expected to announce the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, and automobile tariffs will take effect on April 3.

Gold prices rose more than 27% in 2024 and have risen about 18% so far this year, driven by factors such as favorable monetary policy background, strong central bank buying and demand for exchange-traded funds.

From a technical point of view, gold's relative strength index is above 77, indicating that the market is in an overbought state, but analysts say upward action energy has broken any standard price positioning logic.

Wall Street banks have raised their gold price expectations, citing tensions in the trade war and strong demand from central banks. Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to exceed $4,500 in the next 12 months under extreme market conditions.

Spot silver fell 0.6% to $33.90 per ounce; platinum rose 0.5% to $996.20 per ounce; palladium rose 1.2% to $982.94 per ounce. All three metals recorded monthly gains. Oil market

Oil prices climbed about 3.5% to a five-week high on Monday, fearing that supply could drop if U.S. President Donald Trump cashed in on threats to impose more tariffs on Russia and could attack Iran.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.5% to close at $74.74 per barrel; U.S. crude oil rose 3.1% to close at $71.48.

This is the highest closing price of Brent crude oil since February 24 and the highest closing price of U.S. crude oil since February 20.

Brent crude oil fell to $3.02 per barrel xm-links.compared to U.S. crude oil, the lowest since July 2024.

Analysts said that when Brent crude oil has fallen below $4 per barrel relative to U.S. crude oil premiums fall below $4 per barrel, energy xm-links.companies sending ships across the ocean to transport U.S. crude oil, which will lead to a decline in U.S. exports.

Trump said on Sunday that he was "angry" at Russian President Putin and would impose a second-level tariff of 25%-50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is hindering U.S. efforts to end the Ukrainian war.

UBS Group analyst Giovanni Staunovo said (Trump) to Russia xm-links.com and the threat of secondary tariffs imposed by Iranian oil is a factor that oil market participants are tracking, and although he has expressed no intention to introduce these tariffs for the time being, greater supply risks are rising in the future. "

Trump also threatened Iran on Sunday that he would bomb Iran and impose secondary tariffs if Tehran does not reach a deal with Washington on its nuclear program. In the U.S., crude oil production fell by 305,000 barrels per day to 13.15 million barrels, the lowest since February 2024.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar strengthened against the yen and the euro on Monday, but it hit its biggest quarterly decline since July 2024 as it surrounds the U.S. The uncertainty of national tariffs has mostly wait-and-see traders waiting for Trump’s trade policy to become clear.

The safe-haven yen rose in early trading and then gave up the gains, gold prices hitting a new high as investors avoid risk assets as the U.S. is about to announce reciprocal tariffs. Tariffs will stimulate U.S. inflation and drag down economic growth prospects.

FXStreet senior analyst Joseph Trevisani said, “The market is worried about the U.S. economy. They are particularly concerned about Trump’s tariffs and their future impact, as the entire tariff plan has not been determined and no one knows exactly what Trump will do. No one knows exactly how other countries will respond. More importantly, no one knows how the economy will react. ”

The White House will announce a new round of reciprocal taxation on Wednesday, and the market is nervous about it. Although there are few details, Trump said later on Sunday that basically all countries will be subject to tariffs this week.

The yen fell 0.1% against the dollar late in trading to 149.95 yen, and rose to 148.7 yen at the time. Last Friday, the yen rose 0.82% against the dollar, and U.S. data on the day showed that core inflation in February was higher than expected, exacerbating people Concerns about stagflation. The dollar fell 4.7% against the yen this quarter, the biggest quarterly decline since July 2024.

Gold rose to an all-time high of $3128.06 per ounce, setting a record high for three consecutive trading days.

Orion Chief Investment Officer Tim Holland said: "I think we all need to get some certainty in terms of tariffs, trade and taxes, and maybe by April 2 we will get most of the certainty. In addition to tariff issues, investors will also welcome a series of economic reports this week, including employment data, which may provide markets with much-needed information to assess how the U.S. economy performs under Trump’s second term. ”

Federal Chairman Powell and other Fed policymakers’ speeches this week may also provide clues to U.S. interest rate movement. The euro fell 0.17% to $1.0816, but will rise in the quarterAbout 4.5%, the largest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2022, helped by Germany's fiscal reforms.

ECB President Lagarde said on Monday that the possible U.S. tariffs mean that Europe will have to better control its future, and reiterated the impact of tariffs and tit-for-tat retaliation measures on EU economic growth.

Trump said last Friday he was willing to reach an agreement with countries seeking to avoid tariffs, but the Washington Post reported over the weekend that he was urging his advisers to take a more radical stance.

The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 104.2, but the monthly line fell 3.1%, the biggest drop since November 2022.

BNYMarkets Macro Strategy Head of America John Velis said, "The risk tone is affected because the United States is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, but the foreign exchange market seems to be in a more stable mode."

As the tariffs stir up the global economy, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35%. In addition, Goldman Sachs also expects the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to cut interest rates three times respectively, higher than the previous two expected.

The pound fell 0.15% to $1.2910, and the monthly trend will rise by nearly 3%, its best monthly performance since November 2023.

UK government spokesman said Prime Minister Stamer and Trump had a "productive conversation" about the trade deal during a call on Sunday, the UK is still expected to be hit by global tariffs this week.

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.4375 against the US dollar. The Mexican peso fell 0.5% against the dollar to 20.4566. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6249 late on Monday. The RBA will hold a policy meeting on Tuesday, hoping to keep interest rates unchanged.

International News

Feder Williams: The United States has not fallen into stagflation at present, and tariffs may cause inflation to heat up.

U.S. New York Fed Chairman Williams said that there is a risk of inflation rising this year, but his baseline view is that inflation will remain relatively stable. "FOMC members generally believe that the inflation outlook is at upside risks," Williams said of the latest Fed economic forecast. "This is exactly in line with my personal opinion. There is indeed upside risks, which depend largely on tariffs and other possible policies."

The White House considers formulating executive orders to speed up approval of deep-sea mining

According to two sources, the White House is considering an executive order aimed at speeding up approval of deep-sea mining in international waters and allowing mining xm-links.companies to bypass UN-supported review procedures. Trump has recently taken action against Greenland and Ukraine to acquire the widespread use of nickel, copper and other important minerals in the U.S. economy. If the order is signed, it means Trump has made new attempts on the minerals issue. Trump also used emergency powers to promote domestic minerals earlier this monthProduction. The International Subsea Authority (ISA), created under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (not yet ratified by the United States), has considered standards for deep-sea mining in international waters for many years, but these standards have not been formally determined due to open differences in dust, noise and other aspects acceptable in practice. Sources say Trump's deep-sea mining order may provide that the United States is intended to exercise its right to mine key minerals under the sea and allow mining xm-links.companies to bypass the ISA and seek permission through the U.S. Department of xm-links.commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration mining regulations.

White House: Trump will decide on the final tariff policy on April 2

On March 31 local time, local time, several senior economic advisers of US President Trump proposed to him a plan to implement new reciprocal tariffs. According to the White House's instructions, Trump will make a decision on April 2 and announce the details of the relevant tariff policies. White House Press Secretary Levitt said that U.S. Treasury Secretary Becente, xm-links.commerce Secretary Lutnik, U.S. Trade Representative Greer, trade adviser Navarro, senior assistant Miller and Vice President Vance all proposed plans to Trump on how to accomplish this work. However, she made it clear that the plan would not include any exemptions. At the same time, she "disliked" the impact of the tariff plan on the stock market.

As Russian authorities inspect CPC oil pipelines shut down

The Caspian Pipeline Alliance (CPC), which exports Kazakhstan oil from the Black Sea, announced on Monday that two of its three mooring points have ceased operations. Previously, Russian traffic regulators conducted an inspection to allow the xm-links.company to correct the found violations, but the CPC did not specify the exact nature of the violations. The inspection is in response to the oil product leak caused by the collision of the Kerch Strait tanker on December 15, 2024. According to traders, if the CPC operates with only one mooring point, its loading capacity may be lost by about 50%. Earlier reports said that oil exports from the CPC pipeline were set at 1.7 million barrels per day, or about 6.5 million tons in April.

More than a thousand scientists in the United States signed an open letter accusing the Trump administration of cutting scientific research funds

On March 31 local time, it was learned that more than 1,900 scientists in the United States signed an open letter describing how the Trump administration cuts funds from scientific institutions, terminates funding for scientists, cancels laboratories and hinders international scientific cooperation. It is reported that the open letter was drafted by a team from the National School of Science, Engineering and Medicine in the United States, and as many as 19 Nobel Prize winners signed the letter. The letter predicts that these measures by the Trump administration will put the United States in an increasingly disadvantaged position when xm-links.competing with other countries.

Bank U.S. stocks are expected to hit the worst quarterly performance since the panic plunge in 2023

Affected by wider economic concerns triggered by President Trump's trade war, bank stocks are expected to hit the worst quarterly decline since regional bank bank failures caused a crisis concern two years ago. Philadelphia KBW Bank IndexIt has fallen 6.4% since the beginning of this year, and is expected to hit its worst performance since March 2023 for three consecutive months. All six major U.S. banks fell on Monday as the market experienced another massive sell-off before Trump launched tariffs on April 2.

British Prime Minister's Office: US tariff policy will affect the UK or take retaliation measures

A spokesperson for the UK's Prime Minister's Office said on March 31 local time that the country is expected to be affected by the US tariffs and retaliation measures are not ruled out. The spokesperson said that Britain and the United States have recently launched "constructive" negotiations on the economic agreement, but the negotiations may continue until after April 2, when US President Trump's new tariff policy on 25% of the U.S. imported cars and auto parts has been implemented. The spokesman said the UK will "take a calm and pragmatic attitude" to deal with the tariffs and said that "a trade war with the United States is not in anyone's interest", but the UK "does not rule out any possibility of response."

Trump: It may visit Saudi Arabia in April, or a little later

On March 31 local time, US President Trump said he may visit Saudi Arabia next month (April), perhaps a little later. Trump also said Saudi Arabia has agreed to invest $1 trillion in U.S. xm-links.companies. Earlier in the day, the White House responded to US media reports that US President Trump planned to visit Saudi Arabia in mid-May that Trump's itinerary for Saudi Arabia was still under consideration, but there was no specific plan yet.

Domestic News

The six state-owned banks invested more than 125.4 billion yuan in financial technology in 2024

Technology is the key driving force for bank development. The 2024 annual reports of Industrial and xm-links.commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China and Bank of xm-links.communications have been disclosed. The annual report shows that the six state-owned banks continue to promote digital transformation and continuously increase investment in financial technology. In 2024, the total investment in financial technology was 125.459 billion yuan, an increase of 2.15% from the total investment in financial technology of 122.822 billion yuan in 2023.

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