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Preventive interest rate cuts are coming! How does the turning point of ECB policy affect the market?

Wonderful Introduction:

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Preventive interest rate cuts are xm-links.coming! How does the turning point of the ECB policy affect the market?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Monday (April 7), the market focused on the interest rate resolution to be announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) this week. Although the euro rose slightly by 0.02% against the dollar to 1.0961 during the day, the interest rate futures market has fully priced the expectation of a 25 basis point cut in April and is expected to be further easing in June. Germany's 10-year government bond yield fell 3 basis points to 2.59%, reflecting growing concerns among investors about the economic outlook of the eurozone.

The risk of recession forces ECB policy to shift

Recent series of economic data show that the momentum of economic growth in the euro zone continues to weaken. The manufacturing PMI has been below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, and the decline in energy prices has eased inflationary pressures, but has also weakened the pricing power of xm-links.companies. Several European Central Bank officials recently sent dovish signals, including executive xm-links.committee member Cipollone, French central bank governor Villeroy and Greek central bank governor Stournaras, all hinting that looser policies are needed to deal with economic downturn risks.

Frederik Ducrozet, chief economist at Pataca Wealth Management, said: "ECB can no longer wait for perfect data, and preventive interest rate cuts are inevitable. The market expects to be easing at least 75 basis points this year, and even more radical measures cannot be ruled out."

Policy differences: Inflation is still a hidden concern?

Although the dove camp has the upper hand, someHawkish policymakers remain worried that premature rate cuts may reignite inflation. Internal model of the ECB shows that if US tariff policies continue, supply chain reconstruction may push up core inflation by 0.3-0.5 percentage points in the next two years. A member of the Management xm-links.committee who declined to be named revealed: "We underestimated the stubbornness of structural inflation, and now relaxation of policies may backfire."

Unconventional tools are on standby, but short-term focus on rate cuts

The market currently generally expects that the April meeting will only adjust interest rates and will not introduce additional liquidity measures. The xm-links.commercial banking system still hoards 2.8 trillion euros of excess reserves, which makes tools such as TLTRO lack urgency in the short term. ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski pointed out: "If economic data deteriorates further, the ECB may be forced to restart quantitative easing (QE) before the summer, but rate cuts are still the preferred tool at present."

Market impact: The euro may enter a period of volatile

Although expectations of interest rate cuts heat up, the euro has not depreciated significantly, partly because the Federal Reserve is also in a policy wait-and-see period. From a technical perspective, 1.0950-1.1000 is still the key range. If the ECB releases clearer easing guidance, the euro may test 1.0850 support; on the contrary, if the policy stance is cautious, short cover may push the exchange rate back to above 1.1050.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Preventive interest rate cuts are xm-links.coming! How does the turning point of the ECB policy affect the market?", which was carefully xm-links.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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market news

Preventive interest rate cuts are coming! How does the turning point of ECB policy affect the market?

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason