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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis: Trade Wars Will Determine Fate
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis: Trade Wars Will Determine Fate". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- The losses of the EUR/USD pair increased as the escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing exacerbated previous turmoil in global markets.
- It pushed some other currencies down by as much as 5% against the recovering US dollar, leading to sharp gains for the euro in many cross-currency pairs.
- However, the pair may retreat further, as the euro will pare its previous gains against May cross-currencies this week if Brussels also engages in a dispute over reciprocal tariffs with Washington, following the implemenhttps://xm-links.comtation of "unilateral reciprocal tariffs" last Wednesday, at a rate of 20% announced in the United States last week.
Global Trade Wars Affect Euro Sentiment
The losses of the EUR/USD pair increased as the escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing exacerbated previous turmoil in global markets, pushing some other currencies down by as much as 5% against the recovering US dollar, leading to sharp gains for the euro in many cross-currency pairs. However, the pair may retreat further, as the euro will pare its previous gains against May cross-currencies this week if Brussels also engages in a dispute over reciprocal tariffs with Washington, following the implementation of "unilateral reciprocal tariffs" last Wednesday, at a rate of 20% announced in the United States last week.
So far, financial markets do not seem concerned about the potential negative impact of US tariffs on the European economy. Markets are anticipating three more interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank by the end of the year, similar to what was expected before the tariff announcements.
The European Economy Remains Weak
According to economic experts' forecasts, even before the imposition of US tariffs, the European economy is already weak, and the tariffs will represent another obstacle. If Europe retaliates against US tariffs, the negative effects on Europe will be greater. From our perspective, the EUR/USD pair faces the risk of a sharp downward correction in the xm-links.coming weeks. The support level is at 1.0804 (61.8% Fibonacci).
A widespread retaliatory response against the new US tariff regime could be issued by Brussels on Wednesday, potentially foreshadowing a counter-response from Washington after US President Donald Trump stated last week that retaliation from others would only lead to higher US tariffs. This, coupled with concerns about its impact on the Eurozone economy, could weigh on the EUR/USD and other euro pairs in the xm-links.coming days at least. However, some in the market see a recent improvement in the euro's outlook due to the weakening US dollar, which has fallen sharply against all its G10 peers this year.
Trading Tips:
We still recommend selling the euro against the US dollar at every upward level, but without risk, and monitoring the factors affecting the currency pair's performance to seize the best daily trading opportunities.
Other factors that could negatively impact US dollar trading, and which could support the euro in the future, include the near-total peg between the trade-weighted US dollar and the trade-weighted renminbi. This is due to Beijing's basket-based approach to setting its managed floating exchange rate, and the pressure exerted by the new US tariffs on the renminbi. So far, Beijing has kept the USD/CNH and USD/CNY pairs trading within narrow ranges, concealing the risks posed by the new US tariff regime to the Chinese economy. However, it has made no significant effort to prevent the US dollar or renminbi from depreciating significantly against other currencies.
For this reason, even with the slight decline in the USD/CNY and USD/CNH pairs during most of the first quarter, the CFETS renminbi index also fell to its lowest level in six months before trading sideways and then rising in the second half of March, prompting the Federal Reserve's broad US dollar index and the ICE US dollar index to follow the same pattern starting on March 16/17.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
According to the daily chart performance, despite recent losses, the EUR/USD pair still has an opportunity for an upward rebound if it stabilizes around and above the psychological resistance of 1.1000. However, investors' risk aversion may make it difficult for the euro to recover and give the safe-haven US dollar the opportunity to push the pair downwards. Hopes for an upward movement will evaporate if bears succeed in pushing the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.0880 support level. Finally, the currency pair may remain in narrow ranges until the reaction to the announcement of US inflation figures and the content of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
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