The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates too high. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 8

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The top three U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 1.97%, S&P 500 futures rose 1.6%, and Nasdaq futures rose 1.4%. European stocks continued to rise, with the European Stoke 50 index rising 1.87%, the UK FTSE 100 index and Germany DAX30 index rising more than 2%, and the French CAC40 index rising 1.84%.

2. Market news interpretation

The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates too high, and inflation risks are ignored

① On April 8, 2025, BlackRock pointed out in a report that the money market has too much expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates too much, and ignores the risk of rising inflation. ②BlackRock does not agree with the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts of four to five times this year, with a 25 basis points each time. ③The agency expects that as tariffs push up inflation, global borrowing costs will rise above pre-epidemic levels. ④BlackRock believes that the U.S. tariff plan and other countries' responses reinforce its view that interest rates and long-term bond yields will continue to be higher than pre-epidemic levels. ⑤BlackRock also pointed out that tariffs and fiscal policy easing in some regions may further push up inflation.

JPMorgan lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7%

The U.S. increased tariffs on South Korea prompted JPMorgan to lower its growth forecast for South Korea twice in a week. Last week, JPMorgan economist Seok GilPark lowered South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.2% to 0.9%, and has now lowered it to 0.7%. Park expects to take the examConsidering the increase in US tariffs and the possible recession in the US economy in the second half of the year, South Korea's actual exports will face a quarterly contraction for the remainder of 2025. He expects the Bank of South Korea to significantly relax monetary policy, and in addition to fiscal stimulus measures, it is also possible to cut interest rates five more times from April to support the economy.

9 people have been fired. Trump continues to "purge" senior US military generals.

A person familiar with the matter disclosed on April 7 that the Trump administration has removed him from his post as a lieutenant general in the Brussels headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. According to the US media, this is at least the ninth senior US military general who has "purged" since Trump returned to the White House in January this year.

Russian crude oil shipments fell to their lowest level in a month

Russian oil exports fell for the second consecutive week, with its key reduction in Pacific-grade crude oil exports dragging down overall exports. In the four weeks ended April 6, crude oil flows at all Russian ports fell to 3.23 million barrels per day, the lowest level in a month and about 220,000 barrels below the recent peak. Meanwhile, the country's production target began to rise for the first time in two and a half years under the Group of Producers Agreement. OPEC confirmed in March that Russia's production target will increase by 26,000 barrels per day this month, which will be xm-links.completely offset by a similar "compensational production cut" increase proposed by Russia in April to offset past overproduction.

European Central Bank official Nagar talks about global economy and European policy

① On April 8, 2025, member of the European Central Bank Executive xm-links.committee, Nagar said that the outlook for global economic growth has deteriorated significantly. ②Nagel pointed out that responsible decisions will be made at the meeting of the European Central Bank's governance xm-links.committee next week. ③He also emphasized that Europe must be more united and that Europe's monetary policy will play an important role in this process.

British Chancellor Reeves stressed market resilience and fiscal rules

①On April 8, 2025, British Chancellor Reeves said that the Bank of England confirmed that the market is operating effectively and that the banking system is resilient. ②Reeves emphasized that all decisions in the UK will be supported based on fiscal rules. ③He also mentioned that Trump's tariff remarks have caused market concerns, and its potential impact on the world economy has been reflected in the global market.

The Swiss National Bank reminds to carefully interpret Swiss foreign trade data: the impact of gold demand

① On April 8, 2025, a report released by the Swiss National Bank reminds that we should be cautious when interpreting Swiss foreign trade data, because the increase in global demand for gold has led to an increase in Swiss gold exports, which exaggerates its trade surplus with major trading partners such as the United States. ② Swiss National Bank economist Lawrence Vichte pointed out that Switzerland is an important global gold refining and transshipment center, and fluctuations in gold demand have a significant impact on Switzerland's foreign trade data. ③The report emphasizes that fluctuations in gold-related data reflect global factors rather than changes in Swiss economic fundamentals. ④ The US government has previously implemented the EU and the UK in SwitzerlandSwiss officials were surprised by higher import tariffs. ⑤ Switzerland’s gold refineries supply about one-third of the world’s refined gold, and the country is also the fourth largest gold exchange-traded fund issuer in the world. ⑥In 2024, gold accounted for 27% of the value of Swiss imports and exports, higher than 22% of medicines.

Goldman Sachs lowers oil price expectations for 2026

① The latest research report of Goldman Sachs Group in the United States predicts that international crude oil prices will be lower than US$60 per barrel in 2026, which is the second time it has lowered its oil price expectations for next year in several days. ② According to the US oil price website, there are two main reasons for Goldman Sachs to lower oil price expectations: one is that US tariff policy will deteriorate the US economy, and the other is that the output of "OPEC+" is scheduled to increase from May to exceed expectations. ③ "OPEC+" consists of 12 major member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and 10 major non-OPEC oil-producing countries. ④ Goldman Sachs lowered its price expectations for London Brent crude oil in the UK and West Texas light crude oil in the US in 2026 to US$62 and US$59 per barrel respectively. ⑤In the latest research report on the 6th, Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their price expectations again to $58 per barrel and $55 per barrel respectively. ⑥ Goldman Sachs believes that if the United States significantly reverses its tariff policy and eliminates market, consumer and corporate concerns, oil prices may exceed its current expectations.

Turkish lira explores a new historical low Political turmoil has exacerbated the hidden concerns of inflation

①Turkish lira exchange rate against the US dollar has continued to be under pressure, and has recently hovered around the historical low of 38:1. Market concerns stem mainly from the turbulent political situation in the country - the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor and main opposition figure Ekrem Imamoulu continues to ferment, triggering the largest protests in a decade and leading to the sell-off of Turkish assets. ② Although consumer inflation fell to 38.1% in March (slightly below expectations and significantly lowered from the peak of 75% last year), the political crisis severely weakened market confidence. Several institutions have raised the country's year-end inflation forecast to nearly 30%. It is worth noting that the producer price index rose by 1.88% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, indicating that the pressure on the cost side has not yet eased. ③ Analysis points out that under the dual impact of monetary policy independence and political risks, Türkiye's asset volatility may further rise, and the pressure on lira depreciation will be difficult to subside in the short term.

Ukraine plans to send a delegation to the United States to negotiate resource allocation clauses for the mineral agreement

① According to people familiar with the matter, the Ukrainian government plans to send a delegation to the United States from April 11 to 12 to conduct technical negotiations on the mineral development and infrastructure reconstruction agreement. The delegation will be xm-links.composed of deputy ministerial officials of the country's Ministry of Economic Affairs and Justice, and will be professionally supported by international law firms, but no higher-level politicians will be arranged to participate. ② Sources pointed out that Kiev insisted on optimizing clauses in the agreement negotiations, because the current draft may require Ukraine to deliver 50% of its future economic income to the United States. The US sees this as a tens of billions of dollars in the early stagebut Ukraine clearly refused to characterize aid as debt. ③It is worth noting that while Ukraine is seeking a larger US investment xm-links.commitment, it is concerned that the special rights granted to the US in the agreement may affect its process of joining the EU. The negotiations are in the US election cycle, and the game between the two sides on resource sovereignty and economic reconstruction models deserves continuous attention.

The Swedish Central Bank warns that uncertainty in the economic outlook has exacerbated trade barriers and drags down growth

① Swedish Central Bank Governor Teden pointed out in his latest policy assessment today that the uncertainty facing the current economy has increased significantly. "The scope of potential outcomes for economic activity and inflation has been significantly expanded in the future," Tedden said, but stressed that "it is still too early to accurately predict the situation's evolution." ② When talking about the impact of trade policies, TD Special warned: "The uncertainty of tariff policies may inhibit consumption and investment decisions." The central bank governor made it clear: "The rise in trade barriers has a negative impact on both economic growth and price stability", implying that protectionist policies will deteriorate the two core goals of the macro economy at the same time.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.0953, an increase of 0.43%. Before New York, the euro fell against the dollar on the last trading day, clearing most of its early gains and closing below 1.0945, as the pullback down wave continued to dominate and traded along the trend line at the intraday level after the price tried to get rid of some obvious oversold conditions on the (RSI).

GBP/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2784, an increase of 0.49%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of the GBPUSD pair stabilized near the lowest level of yesterday's trading in recent intraday trading, and continued to be under negative pressure as its trading was below the EMA50, pushing the price out of the upside price channel that restricts its previous short-term movement, increasing the possibility of breaking the support of the channel, which could pave the way for larger declines in future trading.

Spot gold: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3016.60, an increase of 1.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices fell in recent intraday trading, after previously stabilizing at the psychological resistance level of $3,000. This is a situation where short-term correction downside dominates, with the continued negative pressure as trading is below EMA50.

Spot silver: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 30.363, an increase of 1.00%. Before the New York market, due to the break of a major bullish trend line, the price of silver rose in recent intraday cautious trading. With the emergence of negative signals, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also began to show negative divergence.

Crude Oil Market: As of 20:18 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 61.050, up 0.66%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices (crude oil) fell in recent intraday trading, as negative signals from relatively strong indicators began to appear again. With the dominant short-term major downward trends, the price successfully surpassed the previous overbought state.

4. Institutional View

xm-links.comInstitution: The annual growth rate of smartphone production in 2025 under the impact of tariffs may be the same as the previous year

TrendForce's latest report pointed out that if the relevant regulations on 20% of the US value are relaxed, mid-to-high-end smartphones have the opportunity to apply, but mobile phone brands mainly based on low-end or entry-level models may not be able to avoid the impact of tariffs. Consumers lack confidence in future economic development, and consumption downgrades will be more obvious. Under the benchmark situation, smartphone production in 2025 will increase annually. The magnitude will be downgraded to the same level as the previous year. If the tariff conflict subsequently weakens global economic performance, the smartphone market will face greater challenges and output may turn to a 5% annual decline.

Riho Securities: Tariffs have increased, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its stance of interest rate hikes

Riho Securities' economists said that although the U.S. raising tariffs on Japanese goods may have negative effects, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue seeking interest rate hikes. The economists said in a research note: "Due to the risk of being criticized by the Trump administration for trying to lower the yen exchange rate, the Bank of Japan may maintain its stance of further interest rate hikes to avoid financial market turmoil. "The dollar against the yen is currently at 147.40, and Tokyo stocks closed at 145.59 on Monday. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he would lead discussions with the United States on foreign exchange-related issues, and Japan's economy is responsive.Ryomasa Akazawa has been selected to be responsible for the tariff negotiations.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The market expects the Fed's interest rate cut too high. Analysis of the short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 8" was carefully xm-links.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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