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Is the Fed at a desperate situation? Tariffs spark new inflation concerns in the United States

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Is the Fed at a desperate situation? Tariffs have caused new inflation concerns in the United States." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

In early 2025, U.S. inflation showed signs of easing, but new tariffs and policy uncertainties posed new risks to traders. As March CPI data is expected to confirm a cooling trend in inflation, the market is currently reassessing the inflation impact of xm-links.comprehensive trade measures and the Fed’s possible response.

Inflation has cooled before the implementation of tariffs

The CPI in March is expected to show that the annual inflation rate has dropped to 2.6% from 2.8% in February. Core inflation is expected to drop slightly to 3.0%. The slowdown in energy and gasoline prices has driven this mode of moderation, with overall inflation rising by just 0.1% month-on-month and core inflation rising by 0.3% month-on-month. These data show that the Fed has made continuous progress towards its 2% target and strengthened its post-epidemic anti-inflation trend. But xm-links.commodity prices have already begun to strengthen in February and March, which has sparked early concerns that the cooling trend may reverse as new policies take effect.

Tariffs bring direct and indirect price pressure

With the implementation of President Trump's tariff policy, the economic situation has undergone major changes, including a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, steel and aluminum, and a car tariff that will take effect on 4th of 4xm-links.com. Additional “reciprocated” tariffs on numerous trading partners have exacerbated inflation expectations. UBS warned that inflation could approach a 5% peak if these measures were fully implemented. Kaito Macro has given a more modest view.It is believed that inflation may peak around 4%.

Tariffs are expected to drive up prices through increased import costs and domestic supply chain costs in the United States. Categories such as clothing, electronics and automobiles have shown early signs of inflation. Retaliation between China and the EU is also escalating, but the White House briefly cut some tariffs to 10% in response to global outcry.

The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma of policy environment

The Federal Reserve is now in a dilemma of slowing economic growth and rising inflation. Before the tariff news was announced, the market was expected to begin entering a cycle of interest rate cuts in the middle of the year. Traders now believe the likelihood of a rate cut in May is 33% and the likelihood of four rate cuts by the end of the year is 63%. However, Chairman Powell has already shown a cautious stance, urging patience on uncertainty. The minutes of the Fed meeting acknowledged the inflationary impact of tariffs and reported that some xm-links.companies were already passing on higher costs.

Market forecast

The recent cooling of inflation may soon give way to tariff-driven price surges. As the Fed is reluctant to act too early, traders should prepare for higher consumer costs, greater volatility and more sensitive to the upcoming CPI and Fed decision dates. The wait-and-see attitude is still the central bank's attitude, but market risks are rising.

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Is the Fed at a desperate situation? Tariffs spark new inflation concerns in the United States

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