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4.15 Analysis of the price fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil today and the latest long and short operation suggestions and guidance
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Analysis of the price fluctuations and trends of gold and crude oil today and the latest long and short operations advice guidance". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
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The latest gold market trend analysis:
Gold news analysis: Spot gold fell slightly during the day on Monday (April 14), and fell back after hitting the historical high of $3245.42/ounce earlier. Despite a slight adjustment during the day, gold prices remained firmly above the key mark of $3,200 per ounce, indicating that overall market sentiment is still on the verge of cautious optimism. The main factors driving this round of market include uncertainty in the global trade environment, weakening of the US dollar and the continued warming of safe-haven demand. During the session, investors' reaction to the latest tariff remarks has intensified the fluctuations in gold prices, but fundamental and technical support remains stable, and the strong pattern of gold has not been significantly shaken. The US dollar trend plays an important role in this round of gold price fluctuations. The dollar index hit a three-year low, making gold denominated in USD more attractive to overseas buyers. Behind the weak dollar, there are market concerns about the outlook for the US economy and the divergence of global central banksboost reserve demand. Analysts at well-known institutions said that the weakening of the US dollar xm-links.combined with global economic uncertainty constitutes a solid support for gold prices. In addition, global central banks still have strong demand for gold purchases. Since the beginning of this year, many central banks have continued to increase their holdings of gold reserves to cope with potential currency volatility and geopolitical risks.
Gold technical analysis: Gold rose to around 3245 last Friday and adjusted, and then fell back to around 3210 in the morning of the day and then stabilized and pulled up again, forming a phased double top pressure at the 3245 line, and then adjusted in the European session. On the 4-hour trend, the short-term moving average began to gradually diverge downward, and the price began to slowly fall below the previous township support belt. In the short-term trend, it began to gradually weaken in the short-term trend. Pay attention to whether there is a slight rebound and confirmation of the second decline trend. It can be seen that the current 4-hour moving average ma10 has fallen below, so the support in the previous 3220 has now become a suppression point. And you can find that the am20 moving average position below is currently located at 3180-70. Therefore, if you cannot stand firm in the next 4 hours, you will face a continued retreat and decline. And there is a high probability that it will retreat to 3170-60 in depth.
From the hourly line level of short-term trends, gold prices have a brief pullback after a strong rise last week, but they were quickly recovered and then higher, so there is no obvious support level to refer to. Today is generally fluctuating, and without the influence of data and news, gold does not have the basis for a big rise or a big fall. There are signs of a rebound in the US market, but it is also trading around 3200. Since it is a trend of high-level fluctuation and consolidation, we can continue to implement the idea of rebounding and short selling. So far, the price has been repeatedly sorted between 3193-3215, and pay attention to the effective gains and losses of the MA10-day moving average; if the big negative closes, then it will pull back down in the short term and gradually move closer to the middle track; if the long lower shadow K closes, then it will not be able to go down for the time being, and it will continue to consolidate at a high level to overcome the time. Overall, in terms of today's short-term gold operation ideas, He Bosheng recommends that rebound short sellers should be mainly focused on rebounds and long sellers should be supplemented. The short-term focus on the upper short-term focus on the 3227-3237 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the 3200-3190 line of support.
The latest trend analysis of crude oil market:
Crude oil news analysis: The global crude oil market stabilized on Monday after two consecutive weeks of decline. Brent crude is hovering around $65, while the US WTI remains above $61. The market is weighing two major influencing factors: one is the latest U.S. trade measures, and the other is the "constructive contact" between U.S. and Iranian senior executives in Oman. Trump suspended tariffs on some consumer electronic products, and also suggested that "specific tariff measures will be announced later", which still makes the market uncertainty about future trade policies. Despite ease of geopolitical tensions, the oil market is still shrouded in trade concerns. In particular, the confrontation between the United States and Asian countries is regarded as one of the fuses that triggered the possibility of a global economic recession; in addition, OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to accelerate the recovery of some of the production capacity that had been previously reduced, and even moreThis has caused the market's concerns about future surplus.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend moving average system is arranged downward, and the medium-term objective trend direction is downward. After the oil price hits a low of 55.20, the frequent alternation of bulls and bears formed will accumulate momentum for shorts in the medium term and are expected to further decline to the 50 position in the later period. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil remains at the right shoulder position of the head and shoulder bottom reversal pattern. The oil price has not yet broken through the neckline position, so the reversal pattern has not yet been established. The short-term objective trend direction is the oscillation rhythm, and it is expected that the intraday crude oil trend is expected to break through the neckline to form a small upward rhythm. Overall, in terms of today's operational ideas of crude oil, He Bosheng recommends that the main focus should be on the low-sinking back, and the rebound should be high-altitude as the auxiliary. The short-term focus should be on the 62.8-63.8 line resistance at the top, and the short-term focus should be on the 60.5-59.5 line support at the bottom.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Analysis of the price fluctuations and trends of gold and crude oil today and the latest long and short operation suggestions and guidance". It was carefully xm-links.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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