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ECB's April resolution comes, with a high probability of 25 basis points cut rate, and the euro may be hit

Wonderful introduction:

Without the depth of the blue sky, there can be the elegance of white clouds; without the magnificence of the sea, there can be the elegance of the stream; without the fragrance of the wilderness, there can be the emerald green of the grass. There is no seat for bystanders in life, we can always find our own position, our own light source, and our own voice.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The ECB's April resolution is xm-links.coming, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut rate is high, and the euro may be impacted." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro:

Today at 20:15, the ECB will announce the results of the April interest rate resolution. The mainstream expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the deposit mechanism interest rate, main refinancing interest rate, and marginal loan interest rate dropped from 2.5%, 2.65%, and 2.9% to 2.25%, 2.4%, and 2.65%, respectively. According to statistics, since June last year, the ECB has cut interest rates six times, with a cumulative increase of 185 basis points, and the pace of interest rate cuts is relatively fast. After the ECB cuts interest rates, the difference in bond yields between Germany and the United States will be lower, which is negative for EURUSD.

At the March interest rate resolution, ECB Governor Lagarde said that if the data shows that interest rate cuts are the appropriate monetary policy in order to reach the destination; if the data shows that this is not the case, then we will not cut rates and we will remain silent. Based on this judgment, the pace of the ECB's interest rate cut will be disrupted at any time due to changes in data.

However, the ECB's economic data performed poorly, which is unlikely to lead to the ECB's suspension of interest rate cuts. For example, the eurozone's core CPI annual rate in March was 2.4%, far lower than the previous value of 2.6%, and fell for two consecutive months. The decline in inflation data means that the current interest rates are still excessively restrictive, which is not conducive to the recovery of the macro economy, and continuing interest rate cuts is still a necessary measure. In terms of labor market, the euro zone's unemployment rate in February was 6.1%, which was higher than the full employment standard and performed poorly in absolute terms. However, the eurozone has been declining for a while, and signs of gradual improvement in the labor market are obvious. For the ECB, continuing to cut interest rates can increase corporate recruitment willingness and help decline in unemployment data.

Today 20:45,ECB Governor Lagarde will hold a press conference to focus on his views on interest rate paths, inflation and the shocks of U.S. policy. If his statement is biased, the euro will suffer a further blow. As of now, central bank presidents in many countries have xm-links.commented on the US stock policy, most of whom are pessimistic, believing that it will lead to a global economy in recession.

The Bank of Canada announced a suspension of interest rate cuts yesterday, interrupting the pace of seven consecutive interest rate cuts, mainly because of concerns about the uncertainty caused by US policies that impact the Canadian economy. As Bank of Canada Governor McClum said: "(U.S. policy) means lower demand, weaker macroeconomic growth, and higher prices." If the ECB is more concerned about US policy, it may also lead to a suspension of interest rate cuts today's interest rate decision, but this possibility is not high.

Technical area:

▲XM chart

Daily level, EURUSD stayed in the central structure area for a long time, and was affected by the pullback of the central structure from November last year to February this year. Starting from March, the market entered a one-sided market. As of now, no new central structure has been formed, and it is suitable to use the moving average system to analyze the current trend. MA (5, 10, 20) shows a standard long arrangement, and the probability of the rise continuing is high. The green MA5 moving average crosses the K-line, and the short-term upward strength shows signs of declining. The red MA10 moving average has a moderate distance from the market price and can be used as a medium-term support line. Blue MA20 is the guarantee for the continuation of the bull trend. If the K-line falls below MA20, the long-short trend conversion may xm-links.come.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The ECB's April resolution is xm-links.coming, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut rate is high, and the euro may be impacted". It is carefully xm-links.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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ECB's April resolution comes, with a high probability of 25 basis points cut rate, and the euro may be hit

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ECB's April resolution comes, with a high probability of 25 basis points cut rate, and the euro may be hit

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