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4.18 Gold fell sharply and crude oil fluctuated and rose next week's market trend forecast and operation suggestions
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: 4.18 gold fell sharply and crude oil fluctuated and rose next week's market trend forecast and operation suggestions". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Gold market trend analysis next week:
Gold news analysis: On Thursday, the price of gold soared to $3357.78 per ounce, setting a record high. Trade tensions between the United States and China have intensified demand for security, with gold prices remaining near all-time highs and the gains are far from over. Gold prices entered a consolidation after hitting an all-time high intraday trading Thursday, driven by trade concerns caused by U.S. tariffs and concerns about the recession. Although the short-term rebound of the US dollar and the stock market sentiment preference slightly suppressed the rising momentum of gold, the market's expectations of the Fed's multiple interest rate cuts this year and risk aversion sentiment continue to exist, providing strong support for gold prices.
In terms of U.S. economic data, data released by the U.S. on Wednesday showed that retail sales increased by 1.4% in March, the largest increase in more than two years, better than market expectations of 1.3%. Previously revised data showed an increase of 0.2% in February. This data, coupled with Fed Chairman Powell's remarks that he said he would not be inclined to cut interest rates recently, provides support for the dollar. However, the market remains worried about the possible economic shock from Trump's radical trade policy. The rapid escalation of global trade frictions and concerns about global recession continue to provide support for safe-haven assets gold. In addition, the market is still preparing for the Fed's possible return to the rate cut cycle in June, which limits further action by the dollar bulls and serves as a support factor for gold.
Gold technical analysis: Gold prices rose on Thursday, hitting a historical high again and hitting pressure at $3,357, and gold prices ushered in a retreat. For the current market, the only effective trading strategy is to fall back and go long and continue to be bullish. If there is no adjustment and fallback space, it is better not to trade.But more importantly, pay attention to changes in the market. It is also worth noting that there may be changes in the current time cycle and technical perspectives. The daily cycle and H4 cycle have already diverged extremely at the high level. Although the trend is bullish, there may be a decline after divergence at any time. A short-term correction or sideways consolidation is a time for bullishness in the future. The operational idea is to maintain the principle of following the trend. Retrace back to the lower level and pay attention to the support level in the day's low 3312 and 3300. This is a strong support area. If it does not break, it will continue to look at a strong rise. If it breaks, the market will turn into a fluctuation. Look at the 3293-3288 area. Here is a retracement to the 0.5 split position and a short-term short-term support level in the early stage. If it falls below 3288, gold may experience an accelerated decline, so don’t be too bullish on gold in the short term. Furthermore, on Good Friday, the US market will be closed for one day, and beware of the risk of closing positions after long profits are settled. Overall, in terms of gold's short-term operation ideas next week, He Bosheng recommends that rebound short sellers should be the main focus, and the retracement should be the low-shorts should be the auxiliary focus. The short-term focus should be on the 3315-3325 line of resistance, and the short-term focus should be on the 3280-3270 line of support.
Analysis of crude oil market trends next week:
Analysis of crude oil news: During the Asian trading session on Thursday, international crude oil prices continued yesterday's rise: Brent crude oil rose $0.34 to $66.19, an increase of 0.5%, WTI crude oil rose $0.44 to $62.91, an increase of 0.7%. Both benchmark oil prices rose 2% on Wednesday, setting their highest closing price since April 3. As Friday is Good Friday and trading will settle early on Thursday, the rebound may mark the first weekly positive after two consecutive weeks of declines. Both benchmark oil prices rose 2% on Wednesday, setting their highest closing price since April 3. As Friday is Good Friday and trading will settle early on Thursday, the rebound may mark the first weekly positive after two consecutive weeks of declines. The current rise in oil prices is more driven by short-term news, reflecting supply disturbances and emotional recovery, rather than fundamental improvements in fundamentals. The U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC quota adjustments may bring temporary tensions, but the rebound in oil prices may be limited in the context of global trade concerns and institutional downgraded demand forecasts.
Crude oil technical analysis: On Wednesday, crude oil API and EIA data were double negative, but crude oil prices rose unexpectedly. The reason was also affected by tariffs and the situation. On Thursday, the Asian session crude oil price hit the 4-hour SAR index pressure point 63.5. I decisively shorted it. After talking about the trend for two days, there is no reason to not short it today. From the daily market, the pressure point of the daily SAR index has moved down from 64.3 yesterday to 63.5. Today's strength and weakness are converted to 63.5 and last week's high of 63.8. The pressure point of the upper breakthrough is the reference weekly MA5 moving average pressure point 64.8 and the pressure point of the daily trend line 65.2. The pressure point of the weekly MA5 moving average pressure point 66.6 is on the upper.
Pay attention to the 4-hour mid-track and daily line MA in terms of supportThe 5 moving average overlap point is 61.8. Look at the support range formed by the daily MA10 moving average 60.8 and the 4-hour Bollinger band lower track 60.4. As long as the level is broken down, the crude oil weekly line will be a long upper shadow K-line control. You need to pay more attention to the decline caused by the break. Overall, crude oil prices were close to the resistance range last week and should be short, and the short range was below the pressure of 65.2. Overall, in terms of crude oil's operational ideas next week, He Bosheng recommends that rebound high altitudes should be the main focus, and the retracement should be the low long as the auxiliary. The short-term focus should be on the 64.5-65.5 line resistance at the top, and the short-term focus should be on the 62.0-61.0 line support at the bottom.
This article is provided by He Bosheng. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is personal advice. Because the online posting is timely and is for reference only, you can bear the risk at your own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting.
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