Gold hits five-week high, Powell is criminally charged by Trump allies, safe-haven demand stimulates

Basic news

On Tuesday (July 22 Beijing time), spot gold traded around $3,400/ounce, and gold prices hit a five-week high on Monday, as the US dollar and U.S. bond yields weakened amid uncertainty before the August 1 deadline for the U.S. demanded that countries reach a trade agreement with Washington, otherwise they would face more tariffs, and Powell was criminally charged by Trump allies, increasing concerns about his removal; U.S. crude oil traded around $65.83/barrel, and oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday, as the latest European sanctions on Russian oil are expected to have little impact on supply, but investors weighed the potential decline in diesel supply to curb oil prices.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit a close high on Monday, boosted by Alphabet and other super-large stocks, with multiple xm-links.companies reporting earnings this week, with investors betting that a possible trade deal would mitigate the damage to the economy caused by the Trump administration’s global tariffs.

Google parent Alphabet rose 2.7% before its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday. Both the xm-links.company and Tesla will release their financial reports on Wednesday, kicking off the so-called "Big Seven" financial reports.

Tesla fell 0.35%, while Apple rose 0.62%, Amazon rose 1.43%, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq index rose.

Analysts expect average earnings for S&P 500 xm-links.companies in the second quarter increased by 6.7%, with large tech xm-links.companies driving most of the growth, according to data from London Stock Exchange I/B/E/S. Tom Ha, National Investment Strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management in MinneapolisInlin said, "So far, xm-links.companies that have announced their results have generally met or exceeded expectations released in the previous quarter, and we have not seen any decline in corporate profits or consumer spending."

As the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, investors bet that the economic losses caused by the tariffs will be lower than people's concerns. U.S. xm-links.commerce Secretary Lutnik said on Sunday that while EU member states are exploring possible countermeasures against the United States, he is confident that the United States will reach a trade deal with the EU.

Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imported products from Mexico and the EU, and wrote to other trading partners such as Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting a 20% to 50% tariff.

The S&P 500 rose 0.14% to close at 6305.60 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.38% to close at 20,974.18 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04% to close at 44,323.07 points.

Seven of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the xm-links.communications Services sector leading the gains, up 1.9%, followed by the Consumer Disabilities sector up 0.6%.

The transaction volume of various exchanges in the United States increased, with a cumulative transaction volume of 19.7 billion shares, while the average daily trading volume in the past 20 trading days was 17.7 billion shares. So far in 2025, the S&P 500 has risen about 7%, while the Nasdaq has risen nearly 9%.

Investors paying attention to how tariff uncertainty affects the U.S. economy will carefully review the initial jobless claims figures and July corporate activity reports expected to be released Thursday. They will also look at Fed Chairman Powell’s speech on Tuesday to see when the Fed may cut interest rates, especially after last week’s mixed inflation signals. CME’s FedWatch tool shows that traders basically ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and they now believe the Fed is more than 50% likely to cut interest rates at their September meeting. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, hitting a five-week high as U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened amid uncertainty ahead of the August 1 deadline for the U.S. asking countries to reach a trade deal with Washington otherwise face more tariffs.

Spot gold was $3394.23 per ounce, up 1.3%, a record high since June 17. U.S. gold futures closed up 1.4% to $3,406.40. The dollar index fell 0.6%, making gold denominated in dollar more affordable for buyers using other currencies, while the metric’s 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a new low in more than a week.

David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said: "With the August 1 deadline approaching, this brings some level of uncertainty to the market, which is certainly supporting."

According to EU diplomats, the EU is exploring a wider range of opportunities for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington dimmed, the EU is exploring a wider range of things," said David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures.The general possibility of countering the US measures. In terms of interest rates, according to the CMEFedWatch tool, traders believe that the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is 59%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said the entire Fed needs to be reviewed as an institution.

Data shows that the world's major gold consumer countries imported 63 metric tons of gold last month, the lowest since January. Spot silver rose 2.1% to $38.99 per ounce; platinum rose 1.4% to $1,440.75; palladium rose 2.1% to $1,266.04. Oil market

Oil market

Oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday as the latest European sanctions on Russian oil are expected to have little impact on supply, but investors weighed the potential decline in diesel supply to curb oil prices. Brent crude futures closed down 0.1% to $69.21 a barrel. U.S. crude oil fell 0.2% to $67.20.

The EU approved the 18th set of sanctions imposed on Russia due to the Ukrainian war last Friday, which also targets India's Nayara Energy xm-links.company, an exporter that extracts petroleum products from Russian crude oil as a raw material. "The market currently believes that supply will still enter the market in some way or form, and the market is not too worried."

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said last Friday that Russia has already gained some immunity to Western sanctions. Analysts said investors' concerns about diesel supply caused by the sanctions package curb some of the declines in crude oil during trading Monday afternoon.

Low-sulfur diesel futures closed at $26.31 on Monday, up about 3%, setting their highest closing price since February 2024.

Bak Hughes said last Friday that the number of oil rigs operating in the United States fell by two to 422 last week, the lowest level since September 2021.

Foreign exchange market

The yen climbed across the board on Monday after the previously troubled Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to continue as leader, even as the ruling coalition he led lost more than half of his seat in the House of Lords elections on Sunday. Investors are ready for market turmoil as the deadline for U.S. tariff negotiations approach. As the Japanese market is closed due to public holidays, the yen has become the main measure of possible anxiety among investors.

On the other hand, the dollar weakened against most currencies, consistent with the downward trend of U.S. Treasury yields, analysts pointed out. In afternoon trading, the yen rose 1% against the dollar to 147.315 yen per dollar, although that level is not too far from the three-and-a-half-month low of 149.19 yen hit last week. At the time, investors were concerned about Japan's political and fiscal prospects.

The yen rose to 172.27 against the euro and to 198.64 against the pound, both rising 0.4%.

The Liberal Democratic Party led by Shigeru Ishiba won 47 seats in the Japanese Senate election, lower than the 50 seats needed to secure more than half of the seats. There are 248 seats in the Senate, and half of them are involved in this re-election.

While some members of the party began to discuss his stay or not and the opposition was considering filing a motion of distrust, Shigeru Ishiba still vowed to continue as prime minister. "For Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the election results are not as bad as analysts predict. The Prime Minister's party successfully minimized seat losses and Shigeru Ishiba was not forced to resign, and the reality is far more optimistic than expected due to the Prime Minister's xm-links.commitment to continue to rule and resolve differences in fiscal policy, which generally played a welcome role in the development of the yen."

Although the election results did not xm-links.completely shock the market, it was also a tricky moment for a country trying to reach a tariff agreement with U.S. President Trump by the August 1 deadline.

Investors' focus is also firmly locked in the global tariff offensive launched by Trump. A report from the Financial Times last week showed that the U.S. president is pushing for new high tariffs on EU products.

U.S. xm-links.commerce Secretary Lutnik said on Sunday that he is confident that the United States will reach a trade deal with the EU, but stressed that August 1 is the deadline for tariffs to xm-links.come into force. EU diplomats said that as hopes of reaching an acceptable agreement gradually fade, the EU is looking at a broader countermeasures, although a negotiated settlement remains its first choice.

The euro was at $1.1681, up 0.4%; the pound was at $1.3488, up 0.6%. The ECB will hold a meeting this week and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged after consecutive rate cuts. Meanwhile, investors are concerned about whether the Fed will choose to cut interest rates under Trump’s pressure.

In the United States, Trump seemed to be close to firing Fed Chairman Powell last week, but eventually gave up due to the possibility of market turmoil. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said on Monday that the Fed as an institution needs to be fully examined to assess whether it really plays a role.

He pointed out in an interview with xm-links.comBC that although there is almost no inflation effect at present, the Federal Reserve has "created panic" on tariffs.

Traders have now fully digested the Fed's expectations of a rate cut at its October meeting, but have not yet fully digested the possibility of a second rate cut this year. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.5% to 97.969.

International News

Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran has not stopped uranium enrichment projects

According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragzi said on the 21st that after the US attack, Iran's uranium enrichment facilities were "seriously damaged." He also said that the uranium enrichment project has not stopped and Iran cannot give up, which is for IranIt is very precious and involves national self-esteem.

Fitch lowered the rating of 25% of the U.S. industry outlook to "deterioration"

On July 21, international rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow on the U.S. credit outlook. In its mid-year update, Fitch lowered its outlook for the U.S. 25% industry in 2025 to "deterioration" due to increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth and expected interest rates to remain high for a long time. Fitch said the recent tax and expenditure bills passed highlight the long-term challenges facing the U.S. fiscal outlook and will put pressure on healthcare-related industries. The xm-links.combination of the tax bill and the extension of previous tax cuts is likely to keep the U.S. government's total deficit above 7% of GDP and push the debt-to-GDP ratio to 135% in 2029. Fitch predicts that by 2025, the default rates of U.S. high-yield bonds and leveraged loans will rise to 4.0% to 4.5% and 5.5% to 6.0%, respectively. Policy development and industry-specific risks will remain the main drivers of rating trends this year.

Congressional Budget Office: Trump's tax reform bill will increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion

According to the latest estimates of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the tax and expenditure bill recently signed by President Donald Trump will increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade and cause millions to lose health insurance. The CBO's assessment released on Monday showed that the bill would result in a $4.5 trillion decrease in revenue and a $1.1 trillion decrease in spending by 2034. The latest analysis does not include so-called dynamic effects, such as the impact the bill may have on economic growth or interest rates in the future. Trump signed the OneBigBeautiful Bill on July 4 after months of consultation with Congressional Republicans. The bill covers most of Trump's economic agenda, including permanently extending its 2017 income tax relief and some corporate tax cuts, raising state and local tax deductions (SALT) caps, and providing temporary tax benefits for tips and overtime wage income.

Zelensky: Ukraine's next round of peace negotiations are scheduled to be held in Turkey on Wednesday

Ukrainian President Zelensky quoted the chairman of the Ukraine Security and Defense xm-links.commission as saying that the next round of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is scheduled to be held in Türkiye on Wednesday. In his evening video speech, Zelensky said, "Today, I discussed preparations for the exchange of prisoners with Umerov and the reconciliation with Russia in Turkey. Umerov said the meeting is scheduled to be held on Wednesday. More details will be announced tomorrow." Umerov, currently secretary of the Ukrainian Security and Defense xm-links.commission, presided over the first two rounds of talks with Russia.

Federal Powell has been criminally charged by Trump allies

U.S. House Representative Anna Paulina Luna filed criminal charges with the Justice Department, claiming that Fed Chairman Powell has xm-links.committed perjury twice. Luna"On June 25, 2025, Powell testified before the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs xm-links.committee on the renovation of the Fed's Eccles Building. In his statement, he made several major false statements," the letter read. "In addition, in a letter to Russell Vought, director of the U.S. Administration and Budget (OMB), Powell said that the change in increasing the cost of the project from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion is trivial. However, documents reviewed by Congressional investigators show that the scope and cost overruns of the project are not essentially and essentially minor." Perjury can be sentenced to up to five years in prison, except for the fine.

Experts say Shigeru Ishiba's future in governing is worrying

Analysts believe that the Japanese people are dissatisfied with the rising prices, weak policy responses and aging of traditional party images are the main reasons for the defeat of the ruling alliance of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, and also expose the deep crisis of the ruling alliance in policy responses and public opinion xm-links.communication. Lu Hao, director of the xm-links.comprehensive Strategy Research Office of the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that although Shigeru Ishiba may continue to serve as prime minister, his future in power is worrying, and it will be difficult to calm down doubts from both the government and the outside world in the short term. At the same time, the tendency of conservatism and populism in Japan's political situation will intensify.

The UK imposes 137 new sanctions on Russia's key energy and oil industries

The UK government: 137 new sanctions are imposed on Russia's key energy and oil industries, with the sanctions targets including 135 tankers, which are part of a fleet of ships that illegally transport $24 billion worth of cargo since early 2024.

Domestic News

The head of the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of xm-links.commerce talks about the situation of my country's consumer market in the first half of 2025

Since this year, xm-links.commercial authorities at all levels have conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central xm-links.committee and the State Council, steadily promoted special actions to boost consumption, and increased their efforts to expand the implementation of old-for-new consumer goods, promote the high-quality development of service consumption, carry out in-depth "Purchase in China" series of activities, vigorously boost consumption, expand domestic demand in all aspects, and maintain a stable growth trend, providing strong support for strengthening the domestic circulation and promoting the sustained improvement of the economy. First, the market size has steadily expanded, and the role of the main consumer engine has become more prominent. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year was 24.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points faster than the whole year of last year. Final consumption expenditure contributes 52% to GDP growth, giving full play to the role of the main engine of economic growth. By quarter, the total retail sales in the second quarter increased by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter. By consumption type, retail sales of goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and retail sales of services increased by 5.3%.

Secondly, the results of old-for-new trade-in continue to appear, and products such as home appliances, mobile phones and xm-links.computers are selling well. The Ministry of xm-links.commerce will work with relevantDepartments have stepped up efforts to expand the implementation of consumer goods traded in old products, closely follow up and supervise, strengthen policy promotion, and strive to boost bulk consumption. Artificial smartphones and xm-links.computers, sweeping robots, smart door locks, wearable devices and other products have entered thousands of households, improving people's quality of life. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of home appliances, xm-links.communication equipment, cultural office supplies and furniture units above the limit increased by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1% and 22.9% year-on-year respectively, and the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 10.8% year-on-year.

The third is that service consumption has been further expanded, and the popularity of entertainment and tourism consumption has not diminished. The tourism market is very popular. During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic travelers were traveling, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year; the total cost of tourists traveled was 180.269 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year. The film market has outstanding highlights. Driven by the series of high-quality domestic films, the national movie box office exceeded 29.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year. The performance market continued to be booming, with the box office of national concerts increasing by about 40% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Fourth, new consumption is booming, and "IP + consumption" and "artificial intelligence + consumption" are favored.

Digital consumption is full of vitality, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 6.0% year-on-year in the first half of the year, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales. Green consumption continues to heat up, with the retail volume of new energy passenger cars growing by 33.3%, and the penetration rate reaches 50.2%. "IP + consumption" is in full swing, and well-known IP derivatives are selling well, becoming the "traffic password" to attract young people. The initial launch economy remains popular, and a number of new products in the fields of new energy vehicles, mobile phones, etc. are launched first, which is widely popular among consumers. Fifth, the effectiveness of the policy of optimizing tax refunds in departure has begun to show, and inbound consumption has continued to expand. The Ministry of xm-links.commerce, together with relevant departments, organized a series of activities of "Purchase in China", deepened the cultivation and construction of international consumption center cities, optimized the departure tax refund policy, and created an internationally friendly consumption environment. "China Travel" and "China Purchase" continue to heat up.

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