The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged, and analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 24

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.38%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.33%. The German DAX index rose 0.57%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.97%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.00%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.42%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The European Central Bank maintains interest rates unchanged and wait and see the progress of US-Europe trade negotiations

The European Central Bank maintained its main interest rate unchanged at 2% on Thursday, waiting for more clear signals on the direction of the EU-US trade relations. Inflation has fallen to the target level of 2%, and interest rates have also been lowered from 4% to 2% since June last year, and the policy pressure faced by the European Central Bank has been greatly alleviated. The ECB said it will continue to adhere to the "session-by-conference" policy and will not preset interest rate paths, and all decisions will be based on the latest data. The statement said that the latest information is generally consistent with previous judgments on the inflation outlook, with domestic price pressures continuing to ease and wage growth slowing down. The market is still betting that there will be at least one interest rate cut later this year. The market focus turned to President Lagarde's later press conference, and she is expected to face intensive questions about whether to continue to cut interest rates in the future, the strength of the euro exchange rate, and the impact of tariffs.

Bank of England August meeting: PMI data is "breaking", whether the 25 basis points rate cut can be settled

⑴ The upcoming August meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to be full of differences again. ⑵The UK PMI data in July shows thatChina's business activity growth is weak, and enterprises have laid off employees at the fastest pace in five months. ⑶ However, the growth rate of corporate fee prices has accelerated for the first time since April, which has put the Bank of England in a dilemma: should it be given priority to inflation or employment? ⑷ING believes that due to the possible different answers to this issue by policymakers, there will be another divergence in the Bank of England meeting in August, similar to the tripartite voting situation in May. ⑸ At the May meeting, five members voted to support a 25 basis point interest rate cut, two support remained unchanged, and two supported a 50 basis point interest rate cut. ⑹The voting results last month were relatively clear, with six xm-links.committee members supporting the interest rate unchanged, and three supporting interest rate cuts. ⑺If there are more serious differences in the August meeting, such as the 3-4-2 vote, it will further weaken market confidence. ⑻ Current market pricing shows that the Bank of England's chances of a 25 basis point cut in August are about 80%.

The Russian crashed An-24 passenger plane has been in operation for 49 years

According to the news released by the Russian Ministry of Emergency, an A-24 passenger plane of Angara Airlines lost contact several kilometers from the airport in Tengda City, Amur Prefecture, Russia on the 24th. Russian News Agency reported that the crashed An-24 passenger plane was found on a remote hillside 15 kilometers away from Tengda City. The Mi-8 helicopter involved in the search and rescue discovered the burning fuselage of the crashed passenger plane. Regarding the information about the An-24 crash, public information shows that the An-24 aircraft has encountered many accidents during its 60 years of service, which has caused many discussions, and the discussions are mostly focused on the safety issues of old models. The plane that crashed today xm-links.completed its first flight in 1976 and has been in operation for 49 years. In 2021, relevant departments will extend the validity period of their airworthiness certificates to 2036.

The suspense of the European and American trade war escalates: The EU has passed a 93 billion euro counter tariff, and is the 15% tariff agreement xm-links.coming out?

⑴ The European xm-links.commission said on Thursday (July 24, Beijing time) that it was "attainable." ⑵ At the same time, EU member states voted to approve a plan to impose counter-tariff tariffs on 93 billion euros of U.S. goods in case negotiations break down. ⑶ The European xm-links.commission has repeatedly emphasized that its primary goal is to reach an agreement to avoid the 30% tariff that US President Trump claims will be implemented on August 1. ⑷ An EU spokesperson said in response to a reporter's question that the EU's focus is to reach a negotiated settlement with the United States and believes that this result is "attainable." ⑸ The European xm-links.commission said on Wednesday that it would advance a potential countermeasures plan in parallel, xm-links.combining two sets of proposed tariffs totaling 21 billion euros and 72 billion euros into a list and submitting them to member states for approval. ⑹EU diplomats confirmed that the vast majority of member states approved the measures on Thursday. ⑺The first batch of countermeasures will xm-links.come into effect on August 7, but tariffs on soybeans and almonds will be postponed until December 1. ⑻The second batch of countermeasures will take effect in two phases, on September 7 and February 7 next year. ⑼The EU and the United States appear to be moving towards a possible trade agreement,The agreement may lead to a general imposition of 15% tariffs on EU imported US goods, similar to the framework of the US-Japan agreement. ⑽The potential agreement may cover industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals, and will not override the existing US long-term tariffs of nearly 5% on average. ⑾Certain industries such as aircraft, wood, some medicines and agricultural products may be exempted. ⑿ However, Washington seems reluctant to lower its 50% tariff on steel.

The European auto market "blood flows into a river": sales plummeted in June, Tesla fell below the decline

⑴ European new car sales in June fell by more than 5% year-on-year, revealing the global challenges facing automakers. ⑵ Despite the overall sales of electric vehicles, Tesla's market share has declined for the sixth consecutive month, with sales plummeting by nearly 23%. ⑶The four largest automobile groups in Europe - Volkswagen, Stellantis, Renault and Hyundai, all sales in June were lower than the same period last year. ⑷ Among them, Stellantis fell the most, reaching 12%, and Volkswagen also fell 6%. ⑸ Hyundai Motor's second-quarter operating profit also declined on Thursday (July 24, Beijing time). ⑹ European automakers have suffered billions of euros recently and issued profit warnings. ⑺They are struggling to deal with the 25% import tariffs in the United States and domestic regulations aimed at accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles. ⑻In June, the EU, the UK and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) regions saw car sales drop to 1.24 million.

The crude oil market storm hit: Middle East benchmark oil prices soar, and the "phantom" of global supply interruption emerged

⑴ On Thursday (July 24, Beijing time), the Middle East crude oil benchmark spot premium Murban soared to a new high in the past six months, and Oman and Dubai crude oil also strengthened simultaneously. ⑵This is mainly affected by supply disruptions in many places around the world. ⑶ Market attention There are reports that due to Russia's administrative intervention, Kazakhstan has problems loading CPC crude oil through the Black Sea. ⑷In addition, pollution reports have also occurred near the Azerbaijan crude oil loading in the port of Jayhan, Türkiye. ⑸ However, the Kazakh Ministry of Energy said on Thursday (July 24, Beijing time) that the country has not stopped loading oil through Russian seaports. ⑹Singapore spot market shows that the premium of cash Dubai crude oil to swaps rose 10 cents to $2.91 a barrel. ⑺There were multiple UpperZakum and al-Shaheen crude oil deals loaded in September, with prices generally ranging from $71.17 to $71.20 per barrel. ⑻GME Oman crude oil price was US$71.33 per barrel, up from US$70.52 in the previous trading day. ⑼Ohio lightweight low-sulfur crude oil loading in Türkiye's Jayhan Port has been suspended, awaiting test results for organochlorine pollution. ⑽Other news pointed out that foreign oil tankers were temporarily banned from loading crude oil at major Russian Black Sea ports, which actually hindered some exports from Kazakhstan. ⑾ French Total Energy's second-quarter earnings fell 23% year-on-year, its worst performance in four years, but in line with analyst expectations. ⑿U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Wednesday (NorthBeijing time, July 23) Data showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week, while distillate inventories rose.

British manufacturing alert: The recovery of orders cannot hide the "cold winter" of investment, and the employment market continues to be under pressure!

⑴ A survey released by the British Federation of Industry (CBI) on Thursday (July 24 Beijing time) showed that although there are signs of stabilization in the UK's manufacturing industry, the outlook is still fragile. ⑵The monthly CBI manufacturing order difference in July improved from -33 in June to -30, returning to the May level, indicating that the order decline narrowed. ⑶ The difference in manufacturing output in the past three months has improved significantly from -23 in June to -2, indicating that the shrinking rate of production activities has slowed down significantly. ⑷ However, manufacturers' expectations for average prices in the next three months rose from +19 to +21 in June, suggesting that cost pressures continue and xm-links.companies may pass on to consumers. ⑸ Although short-term data improved slightly, manufacturers' overall optimism worsened again in July, and there was no obvious sign of a recovery in investment intention. ⑹The employment outlook remains sluggish, manufacturing employment has declined for the third consecutive quarter, and is expected to decline slightly further in the next three months (to October). ⑺CBI chief economist Ben Jones pointed out that the sluggish demand, high input costs, labor shortages and global supply chain disruptions in the UK continue to put pressure on profit margins and production capacity. ⑻Companies are concerned about uncertainty about future demand, insufficient returns and ongoing labor shortages.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1755, a drop of 0.11%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EUR/USD) fell at the recent intraday level, trying to get positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, and trying to unload some obvious overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially as negative signals start to appear, in the ongoing positive support from its trading EMA50, and in the direction of supportive bias lines of its trading trends, led by the major bullish trend on a short-term basis.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3551, a drop of 0.21%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price continued to rise on the last trading day, supported by positive pressure from its steady footing above the EMA50, and in addition, it was trading in a strong bull market in the near term.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3362.30, a drop of 0.73%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (gold) continued to fall in the last trading session, becauseAs the price attempts to find rising lows, based on this, it may help it get the positive momentum it needs to recover, relying on its EMA50 support, its trading supports this trend with the small bias line on a short-term basis, with the (RSI) reaching oversold levels, indicating a decline in bearish momentum.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 39.041, a drop of 0.50%. Before New York, the (silver) price fell on the last trading day due to the stability of the key resistance at $39.10, collecting previous gains and trying to obtain bullish momentum that could help it recover and break through that resistance, and its dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50 continues, creating a barrier to preventing the price from falling. On a short-term basis, the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading along a slash, we noticed that (RSI) reached an oversold level xm-links.compared to the price action, indicating that a positive divergence began to form.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 65.960, an increase of 1.09%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price settled on a limited gain on the last trading day, taking advantage of the positive signals on the (RSI), which helped it retest the key resistance level of $65.60.

4. Institutional view

Dutch International: The Bank of England faces double pressure of weak employment and rising prices

Dutch International Group economist James Smith pointed out in the report that the Bank of England faces double pressure of weak employment market and accelerated price increases. A business survey released on Thursday showed a decline in employment in the UK's service sector, a trend related to recent increase in minimum wages and increased wage costs. However, the survey also showed that the investment price inflation has heated up again. "Among these trends higher inflation or lower hiring more important? This question is still undecided," Smith said. This double pressure puts the Bank of England in a difficult choice at its next policy meeting in August, although he believes rate cuts are still a more likely option.

Deutsche Bank: Strong trade progress and demand boost oil prices

Oil prices rose today as progress in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and the EU eased market concerns about the global economic outlook. TommyWu and Moses Lim of Deutsche Bank's research department said:The main tone of the night market is the rebound in risk appetite sentiment. The latest trade trends have sparked optimism among investors, saying the U.S. is expected to reach an agreement with more trading partners by the August 1 deadline. In addition, signs of strong U.S. fuel demand in summer and unresolved geopolitical tensions also provide support for oil prices. ”

The above content is all about "【XM Group】: The European Central Bank maintains interest rates unchanged, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 24" was carefully xm-links.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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