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The dollar ends four consecutive declines, Trump puts pressure on Powell to cut interest rates
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar ends four consecutive declines, and Trump puts pressure on Powell to cut interest rates in person." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 25, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.43. On Thursday, thanks to the progress of funds between the United States and trading partners, the U.S. dollar index ended four consecutive declines and finally closed up 0.3% to 97.5. The yield on the US Treasury continued to rebound, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.402%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.931%. As signs of easing global trade tensions curb demand for safe-haven assets, spot gold fell for the second consecutive trading day, eventually closing down 0.55% to close at $3368.66/ounce; spot silver fluctuated around the $39 mark and finally closed down 0.52% to $39.06/ounce. International oil prices rebounded as expectations of a decrease in Russia's gasoline exports overshadowed news that the U.S. allowed Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela. WTI crude oil stabilized above the $65 mark and finally closed up 1.12% to $65.95 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.75% to $68.57 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.43. A breakthrough deal between the United States and Japan, and hopes of a similar deal between Washington and Brussels, increases risk appetite and reduces risk aversion demand. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have also suppressed market sentiment. However, moderate technical adjustments after recent sell-offs are helping the dollar stabilize. Technically, if the US dollar index successfully closes above the 97.50 level, it will move towards resistance at 98.00–98.20.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Friday, gold hovered around 3371.31. The market's attention is turning to the upcoming U.S. durable goods order data. As an important indicator to measure manufacturing activity and economic health, durable goods order data may provide new clues to the trend of gold prices. If the data performs strongly, it may further strengthen economic recovery expectations and push up the US dollar and US bonds Return rate continues to suppress gold prices. On the contrary, if the data is unexpectedly weak, it may rekindle market concerns about the economic slowdown and boost gold's safe-haven demand. In addition, factors such as geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchase demand and US dollar trends will continue to affect the long-term trend of gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to two key points: one is the subtle changes in the Fed's interest rate meeting on July 30; the other is the final details of the US-EU agreement before the tariff deadline on August 1.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Friday, crude oil trading was around 65.89. The market is turning to the upcoming U.S. durable goods order data. In addition, factors such as geopolitical risks and US dollar trends will continue to affect the long-term trend of oil prices. Investors need to pay close attention to two key moments: one is the subtle changes in the Fed's interest rate meeting on July 30; the other is the final details of the US-EU agreement before the tariff deadline on August 1.
Forex market trading reminder on July 25, 2025
①14:00 UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate
②16:00 Germany July IFO Business Intensity Index
③20:30 US June durable goods order monthly rate
④ The next day 01:00 US to July 25 total oil drilling rigs
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