US withdraws from Doha negotiations, Trump visits the Federal Reserve, safe-haven demand eases restrictions on gold price increase

Basic news

On Friday (July 25, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,370.62 per barrel, gold prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday. Signs of easing global trade tensions suppressed demand for safe-haven assets. Trump visited the Federal Reserve on Thursday. VOUGHT, head of the Office of Management and Budget, said that Powell and Trump had a good conversation on the trip to the Federal Reserve; U.S. crude oil trading was around $66.20 per barrel, and oil prices cut gains on Thursday as U.S. President Trump's administration may allow Chevron to resume business in Venezuela.

Stock and Nasdaq Index hit record closing highs on Thursday as strong performance from Google's parent Alphabet fueled optimism about other heavyweight AI stocks, while electric car maker Tesla fell after its results disappointed investors.

Alphabet rose 1% as the search giant's performance boosted confidence that huge investments in the field of artificial intelligence technology are paying off. Shares of Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon all climbed 1% or more.

The U.S.-Japan trade deal and recent signs of progress in negotiations with the EU have also driven Wall Street's rise. "Investors are optimistic about trade negotiations, the economy, inflation trends and better-than-expected second-quarter earnings," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRAResearch.

Tesla shares plummeted 8.2% as CEO Musk warned that the xm-links.company would face "hard times" in the xm-links.coming quarters. andMeanwhile, the U.S. government is reducing support for electric vehicle manufacturers. So far, Tesla's stock price in 2025 has fallen by about 25%.

United Health fell 4.8% after the insurer revealed it was cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice's investigation into its health insurance practices, after reports that the xm-links.company is undergoing criminal and civil investigations.

IBM dropped nearly 8% as sales in its core software division were on par with investor expectations in the second quarter. Honeywell fell 6.2%, even as its performance exceeded Wall Street expectations and raised its annual outlook.

The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.07% to close at 6363.35 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.18% to 21,057.96 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.70% to 44,693.91 points.

The trading volume on US exchanges was relatively large, with a total of 19.9 billion shares trading, while the average trading volume in the first 20 trading days was 17.8 billion shares.

Eight of the 11 industry indexes of the S&P 500 fell, leading the decline was consumer discretionary, with a drop of 1.23%, followed by materials, with a drop of 0.75%.

American Airlines fell nearly 10% after it expected a substantial loss in the third quarter due to sluggish domestic travel demand.

U.S. President Trump's global trade war has brought the biggest uncertainty to the aviation industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump visited the Fed on Thursday, saying the United States should be the country with the lowest interest rates. Trump said one thing must happen and interest rates must fall. The firing of Powell is a major move, and it is not necessary, and Powell is not under pressure to resign. Trump said that Powell's term is about to end and he is confident that he will do the right thing.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market generally expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at next week's meeting, with traders betting that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is 60%.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell to 217,000 last week, far below expectations, indicating that the job market continues to remain resilient.

The U.S. business activity was strong in July, but businesses raised prices of goods and services, which exacerbated economists’ forecasts for accelerated inflation in the xm-links.coming months, driven primarily by rising import tariffs.

Gold market

Gold prices fell for the second straight trading day on Thursday, as signs of easing global trade tensions curb demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3370.69 an ounce. US gold futures fell 0.7% to settle at $3,373.5.

AakashDoshi of State Street Investment Management said the market is optimistic about the trade deal - first of all, the United States and Japan, and now it may be with the EU, strong stock markets and low volatility put pressure on the upside of gold.

The United States and the European Union reach a trade agreementProgress has been made, and the agreement may include the US imposing a benchmark tariff of 15% on EU goods, which may give some exemptions. Not long ago, Washington and Japan announced an agreement.

The White House suddenly announced that US President Trump will inspect the Fed later, adding a layer of uncertainty to the policy outlook. Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Powell for failing to cut interest rates more actively.

Doshi said: "Any potential interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve will support gold in the medium and long term." It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting from July 29 to 30, but the market is still digesting expectations of a possible rate cut in September.

In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell unexpectedly last week, suggesting that the labor market remains stable despite weak recruitment making it more difficult for unemployed people to find jobs.

Spot silver fell 0.7% to $39.02 per ounce, palladium fell 3.5% to $1,234 and platinum fell 0.5% to $1,405.15. Oil prices cut gains on Thursday as Reuters reported that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration could allow Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $68.77 per barrel, an increase of 0.38%. The settlement price of US crude oil futures was $66.03 per barrel, an increase of 1.20%. Earlier, U.S. crude futures rose by more than $1, and Brent crude oil gains were close to that level.

The market was shocked by the news that Chevron was able to return to Venezuela and re-explore oil. The market did not think the Trump administration would allow other U.S. oil xm-links.companies to enter Venezuela, a unique one-time exception."

Another reason for the rise in oil prices was due to reports that Russia plans to stop exporting gasoline to countries except a few allies and countries with which it has supply agreements. "The news that Russia intends to cut off gasoline exports boosts the market, and the market has been looking for a reason to rise," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup. "Crude oil futures rose early in the trading session, affected by reports on the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories the day before and the U.S. and the EU are expected to reach a trade deal to lower tariffs.

Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said: "The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories and trade efforts provide some support for oil prices."

On Wednesday, two European diplomats said the EU and the United States were moving towards a trade deal that could include a benchmark tariff of 15% on EU imported products and could impose some goods exemptions. This could pave the way for another major trade deal after the agreement with Japan.

In addition, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on WednesdayIt showed that crude oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week to 419 million barrels, far exceeding the 1.6 million barrel reduction expected by analysts in a Reuters survey.

Forex Market

The US dollar consolidated sideways against the euro on Thursday, after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. The yen is affected by the dual impact of the prospect of a rate hike in Japan and concerns about political risks after Sunday's election.

The ECB held interest rates unchanged at 2% on Thursday as expected, suspending its actions after several easing policies in the past year, waiting for a clearer future trade relations between Europe and the United States.

Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank, said: "The view that the ECB may remain unchanged may be gaining more support. We already believe that the probability of a rate cut in September is definitely less than 50%. "

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said that the trade agreement with Washington reduced economic uncertainty, and this remark has driven market optimism that Japan may restart interest rate hikes.

However, some analysts believe that the yen continues to face resistance after the Senate election, and the opposition is considering a motion of distrust, given the uncertainty of domestic politics after Sunday's Senate election.

Diplomatic officials said the EU is about to reach an agreement with the United States to impose a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the United States. This rate could also extend to cars, which would follow the framework agreement reached between the United States and Japan.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data show that France has been vulnerable after the budget cut proposal was announced, but Germany and other parts of the euro zone have shown resilience. Data shows that German corporate activity continued to increase slightly in July. "As of now, tariffs have very little impact on hard data," said Mohit Kumar, an economist at Furui.

At the same time, risky assets have risen as the trade agreement eases concerns about the economic impact of the global trade war.

Next week, the Federal Open Market xm-links.committee (FOMC) will hold a meeting that is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and policymakers are waiting for the expected impact of tariffs on inflation and growth to emerge.

A series of U.S. data will be released next week, with a key June non-farm employment report on Friday, while July’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index and second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data may also have an impact on the market. "There are a lot of incident risks next week, not just from the Fed, but we have a lot of data next week, so this may affect expectations for September to a certain extent."

The euro rose 0.17% against the dollar to $1.1786, not far from the more than three-year high of $1.1830 that hit earlier this month.

The US dollar fell slightly by 0.07% against the yen to 146.39 yen, setting a two-week low of 145.86 earlier.

Olivier Korbe, Forex strategist at Societe Generaler The yen is expected to strengthen further, citing support from the trade agreement and prospects for interest rate hikes.

Source and media reported that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to announce his resignation and take responsibility for the scattered defeat in the Senate election. Shigeru Ishiba denied Wednesday that he had decided to resign.

U.S. President Trump visited the Fed on Thursday, an unexpected move exacerbated tensions between the U.S. government and the Fed, but the foreign exchange market has largely escaped the impact of the news. Trump has been bluntly criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.03% to 97.17.

International News

Trump visits the Federal Reserve and hopes Powell cuts interest rates again

On the 24th local time, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve. Trump said he discussed interest rates with Fed Chairman Powell, saying "the conversation was very effective." Trump said he hopes Powell can lower interest rates. If the interest rate is lowered by three percentage points to one percentage point, the United States can save more than one trillion US dollars. He will observe how the xm-links.committee sets interest rate rules. Trump said that it would be a big move regarding the firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. In addition, Trump mentioned data on renovation projects. Powell said the renovation is expected to be xm-links.completed by 2027. Trump said he usually fires project managers who are over budget.

Netanyahu: Israel will not succumb to Hamas during the ceasefire negotiations

On the evening of the 24th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said at a public event that Israel will not succumb to the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) during the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. Netanyahu said that if Hamas regards Israel's desire to reach a ceasefire agreement as a sign of weakness, believing that the conditions for surrender can be imposed on Israel and pose a threat to Israel, "they are very wrong." Netanyahu reiterated that Israel is determined to achieve all its war goals and vowed to ensure that all detained personnel are released. Speaking about the situation in Syria, Netanyahu said that Israel "will not abandon our Druze brothers in southern Syria." It also promised that Israel will "ensure that areas south of Damascus and near the border are free of weapons and will take all necessary measures to help and protect the Druzes."

The United States withdrew from the Doha negotiations, saying Hamas does not want to end the battle

U.S. envoy for the Middle East, Witkov, said Thursday that the United States will withdraw from the Doha ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas because the United States believes Hamas has not negotiated seriously. Witkov went to Europe on Wednesday to discuss the Gaza issue and the ceasefire agreement, saying Hamas' latest reaction in the Doha talks showed it was unwilling to end the fight. "Hamas does not seem to have coordinated action, nor does it take sincerity," Witkov said. "We will now consider other options, take hostages home and work to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza."

Trump allies sued Powell for the FOMC to hold a public meeting

U.S. General Secretary GeneralAn investment xm-links.company led by Trump supporters sued Fed Chairman Powell and other Fed officials for the Fed to hold a monetary policy meeting in an open manner. In a lawsuit filed Thursday, U.S. investor James Fishback's Azoria Capital said the FOMC's decades of meetings behind closed doors violated the government's transparency laws. The fund filed a federal court in Washington to request the Federal Reserve to meet publicly from July 29 to 30. "Azoria is deeply concerned that under Powell's leadership, the FOMC maintains high interest rates, undermines President Trump and his economic agenda, and damages U.S. citizens and the U.S. economy." The Trump administration approved Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela

Chevron is regaining the ability to extract oil from the Trump administration. The details of the deal are unclear, but it was followed by recent discussions between Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, who had last week's prisoner exchange allowed all 10 Americans detained by the Venezuelan government to be released. "Chevron operates globally, xm-links.complies with laws and regulations applicable to its business, and a sanctions framework provided by the U.S. government, including in Venezuela," said Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne. According to two people familiar with the matter, the Maduro government will not receive any royalties or taxes under the agreement, but the details are not clear. Earlier this year, the Trump administration revoked Chevron's license to exploit oil in Venezuela during the Biden era. The move has been supported by hardliners critics from Maduro's government. But the move has been criticized by oil interests and MAGA supporters such as Laura Rumer, who warned that it would weaken the U.S. energy influence in the region.

English and India sign a major trade agreement - Tesla may become an unexpected winner

India and the UK have just reached a xm-links.comprehensive free trade agreement that may quietly change the investment landscape. This three-year tug-of-war negotiation agreement has significantly reduced tariffs on goods such as whiskey, gin and automobiles. It is not only the largest trade breakthrough since Brexit, but also the most ambitious free trade agreement signed by India in more than a decade. The most eye-catching clause in the agreement is that the UK's automobile export tariffs will be reduced from a staggering 110% to 10% (under the quota system). The shift could reshape the British automaker landscape, and could be an unexpected beneficiary if Tesla advances plans to expand exports or local manufacturing in India.

Domestic News

National Development and Reform xm-links.commission: 735 billion yuan of central budget investment this year have been basically allocated

As of now, central budget investment has been basically allocated in 2025, focusing on supporting projects in the fields of modern industrial system, modern infrastructure system, new urbanization and xm-links.comprehensive revitalization of rural areas, regional coordinated development and opening up to the outside world, green development, social and people's livelihood, modernization of national security system and capacity, and post-disaster emergency recovery. Next step, the countryThe Development and Reform xm-links.commission will strengthen overall coordination and factor guarantees, urge relevant parties to accelerate the implementation of investment plans and project construction progress, and promote the formation of more physical workloads. At the same time, establish and improve the project life cycle management mechanism, strengthen regular scheduling and on-site and post-event supervision, ensure that funds are used in practice and better play the xm-links.comprehensive benefits.

State-Assistant xm-links.commission of the State Council: Optimize the incremental investment direction of state-owned assets, adjust the stock structure, take the lead in resisting "intra-circuit" xm-links.competition, and strengthen restructuring and integration

State-Assistant xm-links.commission of the State Council held a seminar on the heads of local SASACs in Beijing from July 23 to 24 to summarize the work in the first half of the year, exchange practices and experiences, and study and deploy key tasks in the next stage. The meeting required that the deepening and improving the reform of state-owned enterprises should be xm-links.completed with high quality, and the next reform measures should be planned from a high point, and the construction of modern new state-owned enterprises with leading innovation, outstanding functions, efficient governance and full of vitality. We must focus on the "three concentrations", optimize the incremental investment direction of state-owned assets, adjust the stock structure, take the lead in resisting "intra-circuit" xm-links.competition, strengthen restructuring and integration, promote the optimized allocation of state-owned capital, and form a new state-owned capital layout structure. We must adhere to the "two consistency" and promote more scientific and standardized corporate governance, more flexible and efficient market-oriented operating mechanisms, and more keep pace with the times, so as to form a new state-owned enterprise governance and operation mechanism. We must adhere to the unity of "relaxation" and "control", form new means and methods of state-owned assets supervision, and continuously improve the level of professional, systematic, legal and efficient supervision.

Li Qiang will attend the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-level Conference on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence

A spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony of the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-level Conference on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence held in Shanghai on July 26 and deliver a speech.

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